February optimism to March depression – what’s gone wrong?

[Andym]

I’ve been thinking about why, after the good performances of February, March has so far been a major disappointment.

The first factor is, in my opinion, expectation. Most of us expected nothing from February’s fixtures, so each draw (and win) was seen as a major success. On the other hand, particularly after that run, we expected more of March…and it hasn’t happened. So drawing in February was seen as a good result every time, but in March as a failure.

Of course there’s more to it than that. I have always believed (and sometimes been slated for believing) that performances are more important than results. And performances in March have been woeful. I’m not convinced that all of February’s were much better (the Norwich game for example; we got a point through poor Norwich finishing and exceptional goalkeeping) as the opposition dominated play and we had very few shots. But maybe I’d agree that against Norwich the result is more important than performance.

Throughout February and March the back 5 has changed regularly, and I don’t think it’s made too much difference who has played there. They have been reasonably solid.
The strikers too have changed a little, the Lawrence / McGoldrick partnership looking good prior to the former’s suspension, Sears looking reasonable as a replacement, and then Lawrence returning and looking off the pace.

I believe the key is in midfield.
Against Reading the “new” midfield of Skuse, Diagouraga and Huws was broken up after 20 minutes when injury forced Skuse off, to be replaced by Ward. Most of us were surprised by how well ward played centrally, and that midfield of Diagouraga, Huws and Ward looked very promising. The same 3 played against Villa and Brighton. For the Leeds and Norwich games, Skuse came in for Daigouraga and all still looked good. February ends on a high.

So the March midfield. The Skuse -Ward- Huws combination started against Brentford but lasted less than an hour. Diagouraga for Ward after 57 minutes and Bru for Huws 14 minutes later and we’ve suddenly got 2 defensive midfielders again, plus can’t-tackle-won’t tackle Bru.
This is followed by Skuse, Diagouraga, Ward against Wolves, and Skuse, Diagouraga, Huws against Barnsley.
Football is often about combinations; we all moaned about the Skuse – Douglas pairing. It didn’t bother me that they were both “defensive midfielders”. In fact Douglas covered a lot of ground and got forward. But he lacked pace and rarely if ever made incisive passes. The Skuse – Diagouraga partnership is similar. It allows Skuse to get forward more than at any time in his Ipswich career, but, like Douglas, lacks pace or the ability to create.

I’m not criticising the individuals (although I could); it’s just that the combination of Skuse & Diagouraga is no better than Skuse & Douglas. Playing a back 5 should never warrant the inclusion of either pair.

MM seems slow to see this, just as it took him a few games to realise that Berra could never play on the left of a back 3, or a few seasons to notice that Chambers ain’t a right back. As a manager of some experience who sees the players day after day, it is truly shocking that he is so slow to see the problems caused by poor team selections.

[Tangfastic]

I think you make a good point.

Skuse might be very good at the job he does - but does it benefit the team, especially if you want to be more forward-thinking?

I don't think MM is slow to this - its just not part of his mentality. He would rather consider our final third - rather than their final third - as where we should be playing.. and that's where Skuse is most useful. Skuse will not be dropped - so its going to be one of Diarouraga, Huws or Ward that has to make way. Ward seems to be the most likely to make way.

It's only in the event of injury to Skuse that we are allowed to see other combinations - and they appear to function OK with pretty decent performances. Was it last year when we beat Fulham and Foley deputised for Skuse? He had a decent game, but was never allowed to continue in that role. MM will snuff out at the earliest possible attempt the possibility of replacing Skuse.

In a similar way, Chambers continued in the RB role far too long, irrespective of any better RB candidates. It was only in the result of injuries (or perhaps Chambo threw a wobbly behind closed doors) that he's now playing at CB. I think the 5 man defence is most likely there to accommodate Chambo, Berra and Knudsen in the team as we've proven (by injuries) that they are better R (W)B / L (W)B combinations.

[herforder]

Good post, Andy.

I think following toxic January there was pressure on MM from within the Club to play a more attacking, entertaining, style of football. I recall an interview given by Ian Milne that admitted that supporters were growing increasingly angry at MM's intransigence and ultra defensive team selections, compounded by some provocative and disrespectful remarks against those critical supporters. He acknowledged that things could not continue without potentially disastrous consequences regarding future support and ST sales etc. In subsequent interviews MM's remarks were significantly toned down and less confrontational - must have been through gritted teeth!

This led to a change of formation, 3 at the back with wing backs given licence to get forward and provide crosses into the box from both flanks. With one holding midfielder, the others would also be able to get forward and support the strikers. To an extent this worked during February, with some better performances, a win against AV, and some hard fought draws. The new system seemed to be effective; bonuses were Chambo being restored to a more central defensive role, whilst Knudsen appeared to be better on the left of a three, then ever he is at LB in a four!

So far, so good. We were picking up single points, and around 10 clear at the end of last month. However, with only one win, the gap reduced to 9/8 points, and because performance levels started to dip, MM's nerves started to jangle against the fear of falling into a relegation battle. So although still sticking with the new set up, the initial offensive freedom given to them has been replaced by MM's instinctive 'defend first' mind set: if we can't win, then let's not lose. So whoever fills the wing back and midfield slots are effectively shackled within the game plan. Hold the opposition, and perhaps nick something from a break away or set piece and, through being solid and hard to break down, hope to gather sufficient points to survive for another season of potential mediocrity!