FAC Cup (R4) - Ipswich Town vs Maidstone United Preview & Matchday Thread

[goldandblack]

xG: 3.58-0.85

I appreciate XG is not for everyone, but it’s a good measure of what a score could have been based on the quality of chances for each team.

So really the score would have more likely been 4-1 if you go on the XG..

Imo Man Utd are doing worse than us, they are winning but Newport have had ALOT more chances than Maidstone did.

Fine margins, if one of those shots that hit the post in first ten mins goes it that could have been a 5-0 day.

We have all been there Shabba, the moons were all lined up for Maidstone. I watched the match and after 15 mins and all that luck the stones had you could see how this was going,
could and should have been a cricket score but that's life,

[shabba]

Exactly and it’s why I’m not berating the players or manager unlike others.

[rossi]

xG: 3.58-0.85

I appreciate XG is not for everyone, but it’s a good measure of what a score could have been based on the quality of chances for each team.

So really the score would have more likely been 4-1 if you go on the XG..

Imo Man Utd are doing worse than us, they are winning but Newport have had ALOT more chances than Maidstone did.

Fine margins, if one of those shots that hit the post in first ten mins goes it that could have been a 5-0 day.

sorry, but that just strengthens my opinion that stats of any sort are just a complete pile of tosh - forget about the whys and wherefores and what could have happened, and concentrate on what actually did happen.

As for MU doing worse than us - yeah, right. After all, we played a lower ranked team than they did - they won and we lost.

Just saying........

[number 9]

Regarding the team selection, KM didn’t really have much choice. Getting promoted is far more important than the FA Cup. Risking more injuries to an already depleted squad without confirmation of transfers coming in would have indeed been naive. It’s amazing how a good night’s rest can clear one’s mind.

[Ricco]

Regarding the team selection, KM didn’t really have much choice. Getting promoted is far more important than the FA Cup. Risking more injuries to an already depleted squad without confirmation of transfers coming in would have indeed been naive. It’s amazing how a good night’s rest can clear one’s mind.

Normally I'd agree, but we've only scored 4 times in our last 6 Championship games, that's not like us, before that we were averaging more than two goals a game. We needed the Maidstone game to get some confidence, chemistry and momentum back, in my opinion thats worth the injury risk, but we blew it.

[Ricco]

sorry, but that just strengthens my opinion that stats of any sort are just a complete pile of tosh

To be honest, I think 95% of the population's ability to understand and interpret stats is tosh and you'd only disregard stats if you were within that.

Those stats are fine, to me that shows that we were unlucky (which we were) and we snatched and panicked at chances (which we did), hence why we scored 1 instead of 3 or 4. Same goes for the opposition, it's rare a team takes their only chances.

[Shed on tour]

I just don’t get the attitude of don’t play players in case they get injured. If that’s the case the next thing will be don’t let them take part in training.

[number 9]

Regarding the team selection, KM didn’t really have much choice. Getting promoted is far more important than the FA Cup. Risking more injuries to an already depleted squad without confirmation of transfers coming in would have indeed been naive. It’s amazing how a good night’s rest can clear one’s mind.

Normally I'd agree, but we've only scored 4 times in our last 6 Championship games, that's not like us, before that we were averaging more than two goals a game. We needed the Maidstone game to get some confidence, chemistry and momentum back, in my opinion thats worth the injury risk, but we blew it.

I’m with ya, but one could argue a solid win against Preston will have the same effect and hopefully we’ll have a couple additions to the squad.

[number 9]

I just don’t get the attitude of don’t play players in case they get injured. If that’s the case the next thing will be don’t let them take part in training.

Well I don’t think that was entirely KM’s philosophy. He fielded what should have been a squad with the experience to beat the young maidens.

[valleyroad]

lol that’s true …. Except I didn’t pick a team b4 the game. Can honestly say hand in heart I’d never have made 10 changes.

Aye you'd have made 11

[valleyroad]

xG: 3.58-0.85

I appreciate XG is not for everyone, but it’s a good measure of what a score could have been based on the quality of chances for each team.

So really the score would have more likely been 4-1 if you go on the XG..

Imo Man Utd are doing worse than us, they are winning but Newport have had ALOT more chances than Maidstone did.

Fine margins, if one of those shots that hit the post in first ten mins goes it that could have been a 5-0 day.

sorry, but that just strengthens my opinion that stats of any sort are just a complete pile of tosh - forget about the whys and wherefores and what could have happened, and concentrate on what actually did happen.

As for MU doing worse than us - yeah, right. After all, we played a lower ranked team than they did - they won and we lost.

Just saying........

Brentford as a club are a case study for stats.
https://analyisport.com/insights/what-c ... ball-club/
Worked well for them.
Ipswich Town use them and are mentioned in the above link.
Virtually all modern football clubs work with stats.

One of the worst issues in Covid amongst many other was the lack of data/stats available in NHS

[MasseyFerguson]

I measured it as well, Mass…….. waaaaay longer than your 4 posts!

there had been so much sh*te talk in the immediate aftermath of the game I didn't want to add to it.

[shabba]

xG: 3.58-0.85

I appreciate XG is not for everyone, but it’s a good measure of what a score could have been based on the quality of chances for each team.

So really the score would have more likely been 4-1 if you go on the XG..

Imo Man Utd are doing worse than us, they are winning but Newport have had ALOT more chances than Maidstone did.

Fine margins, if one of those shots that hit the post in first ten mins goes it that could have been a 5-0 day.

sorry, but that just strengthens my opinion that stats of any sort are just a complete pile of tosh - forget about the whys and wherefores and what could have happened, and concentrate on what actually did happen.

As for MU doing worse than us - yeah, right. After all, we played a lower ranked team than they did - they won and we lost.

Just saying........

Brentford as a club are a case study for stats.
https://analyisport.com/insights/what-c ... ball-club/
Worked well for them.
Ipswich Town use them and are mentioned in the above link.
Virtually all modern football clubs work with stats.

One of the worst issues in Covid amongst many other was the lack of data/stats available in NHS

Even KM talks alot of stars/performances over results - if you want to be successful at anything over a period of time above a one off then you need to be on the right side of the stats.

[Bluemike]

xG: 3.58-0.85

I appreciate XG is not for everyone, but it’s a good measure of what a score could have been based on the quality of chances for each team.

So really the score would have more likely been 4-1 if you go on the XG..

Imo Man Utd are doing worse than us, they are winning but Newport have had ALOT more chances than Maidstone did.

Fine margins, if one of those shots that hit the post in first ten mins goes it that could have been a 5-0 day.

sorry, but that just strengthens my opinion that stats of any sort are just a complete pile of tosh - forget about the whys and wherefores and what could have happened, and concentrate on what actually did happen.

As for MU doing worse than us - yeah, right. After all, we played a lower ranked team than they did - they won and we lost.

Just saying........

Brentford as a club are a case study for stats.
https://analyisport.com/insights/what-c ... ball-club/
Worked well for them.
Ipswich Town use them and are mentioned in the above link.
Virtually all modern football clubs work with stats.

One of the worst issues in Covid amongst many other was the lack of data/stats available in NHS

I wouldnt take notice of stats within the NHS, every time a person comes into hospital who has had covid gets counted in the stats again, they are cobblers.

[hallamblue]

I was told recently that it costs £250k per WEEK to heat ipswich hospital ….. another useless stat!

[rossi]

sorry, but that just strengthens my opinion that stats of any sort are just a complete pile of tosh - forget about the whys and wherefores and what could have happened, and concentrate on what actually did happen.

As for MU doing worse than us - yeah, right. After all, we played a lower ranked team than they did - they won and we lost.

Just saying........

Brentford as a club are a case study for stats.
https://analyisport.com/insights/what-c ... ball-club/
Worked well for them.
Ipswich Town use them and are mentioned in the above link.
Virtually all modern football clubs work with stats.

One of the worst issues in Covid amongst many other was the lack of data/stats available in NHS

Even KM talks alot of stars/performances over results - if you want to be successful at anything over a period of time above a one off then you need to be on the right side of the stats.

Well, like I said, I'm not a stat man - not because I don't understand them as I think that having a MSc in Advanced Computer Science gives me a good grounding for understanding them, but because I simply do not believe they are of much use.

I wonder - going into the game against Maidstone - which team ought to have won according to the stats at hand?

[Ricco]

I wonder - going into the game against Maidstone - which team ought to have won according to the stats at hand?

Why does that matter? I don't get your point there.

[rossi]

I wonder - going into the game against Maidstone - which team ought to have won according to the stats at hand?

Why does that matter? I don't get your point there.

well maybe I didnt word it as well as I could have done - my point was that stats on our performances since KM took over would surely point to us doing better with a settled side, not by making 10 changes

[Ricco]

would surely point to us doing better with a settled side, not by making 10 changes

Surely so, but I guess stats can only give indication and expected percentages for upcoming events in any case, we could have won 5-0 with the 'first team', we may have lost 5-0, we'll never know.

My gripe wasn't even with the Maidstone result, or trying to win that game, it was that the first team aren't firing at the moment, and what better way to try and achieve that than seeing it as a bit of a pre-season friendly and try and get something going. Though the stats for this thread show that I have made and repeated that point at least one too many times already...

[mendipblue]

Can i just add…….. i thought most of you chose the team……. With echoes of , “oh i only got one wrong”…… “only 2 wrong” ……. Etc etc etc.

So , ……. You all wouldve lost as well you naive gits!!

I was 2nd guessing KMck's team with the 2 wrong comment. I personally would of started with Burns, Chaplin, harness and Travis and try and get the game won b4 bringing on Morsey, Hutchinson, sarmiento and Buabo when there tiring..

Nope Mendip, not buying it…….. like the old Football bet thread…… need to get your proper selections in pre kick-off……. none of this “could of” “would of” shyte!!

[arana peligrosa]

We would have got SWFC or Coventry in Round 5 if had made it through. Right off the bat you could view them as winnable ties but thing is the defeat at the weekend has just shaken considerable confidence. If Maidstone survive the luck of us not scoring on Saturday, play like they did and with a few more other fortuitous elements, they could maybe cause another surprise but somehow the odds suggest otherwise.

They did well, caused a shock and caught us out but the chances of lightning striking twice appear between slim and zero. Think maybe complacency caught us out at the weekend. We must have viewed it as a win before the damn thing was even underway. Coventry and SWFC (now) aware of what occurred, they'll for sure see to it they don't succumb to a similar fate as ourselves.

[Realist]

The Stones have faced three EFL sides in this Cup run and given all of them plenty of chances to score, between them they have scored just two goals, one a complete balls up between keeper and central defender and the other a deflection. I'd suggest lightning does indeed keep striking

[hallamblue]

I really hope they win their next fa cup game tbh . Good luck to them

[Charnwood]

Unfortunately for Maidstone United with a QF place at stake I can’t see either Sheffield Wednesday or Coventry City making the same mistake as McKenna. I think we’re now at the serious end of the competition and only two games away from a trip to Wembley. That’s unlikely to be gifted away by taking it easy.