75 points the target

[JonnoTown]

Mick says 75 points is the target to secure a play off place. Whilst a win from anywhere at the moment looks unlikely we still have it all in our hands with top teams to play. The top 6 was always going to be decided by these 6 pointers over the coming few weeks.

An average of 2 points per game should see a side promoted over a season and with 11 games to go sat on 60 points we need nearly 2 points a game for our target.

Brentford (H) - 1
Borough (A) - 0
Bolton (H) - 3
Watford (A) - 1
Bournemouth (H) - 1
Huddersfield (A) - 3
Blackpool (H) - 3
Cardiff (H) - 1
Wolves (A) - 1
Forest (H) - 1
Blackburn (A) - 1

I make that 76 points and I think I've been realistic.

What do you think?

[Charnwood]

Unless we improve significantly forget about the single points at Watford and Wolves and the three at Huddersfield.

If we maintain current form we'll take 13 points from the next 11 games which look much tougher than the last 11 played.

That unfortunately we give us 73 points and a shortfall which suggests we need to up our game if we're going to make the play offs. That said, if we went into the play offs in current form we'd get blown away anyway.

[marko69]

Excellent thread, and should create plenty discussion. The only one of your choices that I would change (at this moment in time) would the Watford away...... Zero points there.

But the latter of those fixtures could all change quickly if the team can manage to muster up some momentum over the next few weeks. A convincing win at home to Brentford before heading to Boro would be nice.

[Shed on tour]

Jonno
1 defeat in our remaining 11 games?

I thought that was water you were drinking from that bottle on Sunday but obviously it wasn't. Knowing our lot we will take it to the final game away at Blackburn and as Mini will want to go I will have to get up at some unearthly hour for the 12:15 kick off and then we will still manage somehow to feck it up!

[marko69]

Jonno
1 defeat in our remaining 11 games?

I thought that was water you were drinking from that bottle on Sunday but obviously it wasn't. Knowing our lot we will take it to the final game away at Blackburn and as Mini will want to go I will have to get up at some unearthly hour for the 12:15 kick off and then we will still manage somehow to feck it up!

And Jordan Rhodes will score a hatrick.

[Quasar]

I wouldn't bother now prediciting the out come of points.

Looks at some teams we should have EASILY taken 3 points home and we lost them !!!

I just hope we do make play offs - and them ME to open his flipping wallet !!!

[Mach_Polish_Blue]

There is no bloody chance to get anything out of Middlesbrough and Watford this month with our apprehensive and defensive approach. Their teams' have attacking options whereas we have ... Skuse..... or Tabb. Our approach will be just to stop them playing. Moreover we don't play wingers. Poor Cameron Stewart can't get a game as he probably negates defensive philosophy.

[herforder]

Well-intentioned thread, guaranteed to generate lots of input and differing opinions!

However, given our erratic form and performances, I'm looking no further ahead than the next game......and so on. Yes, it's the old 'one game at a time cliche', but right now it's spot on!

Apart from team selection and tactics, the immediate challenge facing MM is to instil some belief and confidence back into those players who performed so well for us up until the New Year. A win on Saturday will be a good start point.

[JonnoTown]

Jonno
1 defeat in our remaining 11 games?

I thought that was water you were drinking from that bottle on Sunday but obviously it wasn't. Knowing our lot we will take it to the final game away at Blackburn and as Mini will want to go I will have to get up at some unearthly hour for the 12:15 kick off and then we will still manage somehow to feck it up!

Haha! You know that will happen as well But if we can take it to the last day, I'll be happy.

Teams have learned how to beat us now and that involves outplaying our midfield. I know our defence has been suspect of late, but we never get rolled over.

Last season we brought Williams in at the perfect time.

Reality is though, if we're to make the play offs we can only afford 1 or 2 defeats now I think.

[Charnwood]

I've just had a half hour to spare so have taken a look at the form of the teams in the top half of the table. With eleven games to play I've looked at the last 11 games played in Jan & Feb and calculated what would happen if that form was carried forward through March & April and what the outcomes would be.

What this suggests is that this could be the first season when 75 points won't be enough to make the play offs this year, I guess this has something to do with there not being one or two teams at the top running away with it as is often the case, and all the top teams seem to be taking turns in having a blip, therefore points are being more evenly shared.

Anyway for what it's worth the outcomes would be as follows.

Teams Ranked in projected finishing order, followed by current points, plus points won in last eleven games = total projected points.

1) Middlesbrough....66 + 23 = 89
2) Watford............65 + 24 = 89
3) Norwich............62 + 25 = 87
4) Derby...............65 + 20 = 85
5) Brentford...........61 + 21 = 82
6) Bournemouth......63 + 15 = 78
7) Wolves..............57 + 20 = 77
Ipswich............ 60 + 13 = 73


Whilst this projection is no exact science it clearly indicates that we will need to significantly up our game if we want to be involved in the play offs and we may need to set a higher than 75 points target figure if we don't want to set a "figure to fail".

[Bluemike]

Some impressive stats but all these projections are fruitless, how many would have had the Norwich result last night ??

One game at a time, all teams are going to drop more points.

[herforder]

I've just had a half hour to spare so have taken a look at the form of the teams in the top half of the table. With eleven games to play I've looked at the last 11 games played in Jan & Feb and calculated what would happen if that form was carried forward through March & April and what the outcomes would be.

What this suggests is that this could be the first season when 75 points won't be enough to make the play offs this year, I guess this has something to do with there not being one or two teams at the top running away with it as is often the case, and all the top teams seem to be taking turns in having a blip, therefore points are being more evenly shared.

Anyway for what it's worth the outcomes would be as follows.

Teams Ranked in projected finishing order, followed by current points, plus points won in last eleven games = total projected points.

1) Middlesbrough....66 + 23 = 89
2) Watford............65 + 24 = 89
3) Norwich............62 + 25 = 87
4) Derby...............65 + 20 = 85
5) Brentford...........61 + 21 = 82
6) Bournemouth......63 + 15 = 78
7) Wolves..............57 + 20 = 77
Ipswich............ 60 + 13 = 73


Whilst this projection is no exact science it clearly indicates that we will need to significantly up our game if we want to be involved in the play offs and we may need to set a higher than 75 points target figure if we don't want to set a "figure to fail".

Good stuff! Keep as a comparator against how it finally pans out in 11 games time.

[Charnwood]

Projections whilst not an exact science certainly aren't fruitless either, they are in fact the most stable indication of what might happen unless something significantly changes.

With a sample of 11 games used for eight diffent teams results like Norwich had last night are built into the projection.

I'm not suggesting for one moment that the table will finish exactly as I've suggested, what I'm illustrating is that we have little chance of making the top six unless something significantly changes in the way we perform or the results we achieve, because at the moment we're on course to finish 8th.

This is fact not fiction.

[number 9]

I've just had a half hour to spare so have taken a look at the form of the teams in the top half of the table. With eleven games to play I've looked at the last 11 games played in Jan & Feb and calculated what would happen if that form was carried forward through March & April and what the outcomes would be.

What this suggests is that this could be the first season when 75 points won't be enough to make the play offs this year, I guess this has something to do with there not being one or two teams at the top running away with it as is often the case, and all the top teams seem to be taking turns in having a blip, therefore points are being more evenly shared.

Anyway for what it's worth the outcomes would be as follows.

Teams Ranked in projected finishing order, followed by current points, plus points won in last eleven games = total projected points.

1) Middlesbrough....66 + 23 = 89
2) Watford............65 + 24 = 89
3) Norwich............62 + 25 = 87
4) Derby...............65 + 20 = 85
5) Brentford...........61 + 21 = 82
6) Bournemouth......63 + 15 = 78
7) Wolves..............57 + 20 = 77
Ipswich............ 60 + 13 = 73


Whilst this projection is no exact science it clearly indicates that we will need to significantly up our game if we want to be involved in the play offs and we may need to set a higher than 75 points target figure if we don't want to set a "figure to fail".

Did the wife have a headache then, Charny? Some nice stats there, but I'm with the 'one game at a time' clan...it's hard enough to predict one result in this bloody league, let alone eleven.

[arana peligrosa]

Mick says 75 points is the target to secure a play off place. Whilst a win from anywhere at the moment looks unlikely we still have it all in our hands with top teams to play. The top 6 was always going to be decided by these 6 pointers over the coming few weeks.

An average of 2 points per game should see a side promoted over a season and with 11 games to go sat on 60 points we need nearly 2 points a game for our target.

Brentford (H) - 1
Borough (A) - 0
Bolton (H) - 3
Watford (A) - 1
Bournemouth (H) - 1
Huddersfield (A) - 3
Blackpool (H) - 3
Cardiff (H) - 1
Wolves (A) - 1
Forest (H) - 1
Blackburn (A) - 1

I make that 76 points and I think I've been realistic.

What do you think?

Brentford Home - 3 points
Middlesbrough Away - 0
Bolton Home - 1
Watford Away - 3
Bournemouth Home - 1
Huddersfield Away - 1
Blackpool Home - 3
Cardiff Home - 3
Wolverhampton Away - 0
Nottingham Home - 1
Blackburn Away - 0

I think if you look at the caliber of opponent there there's nothing to really get in a twist over, all opposition is beatable, but obviously we're going to drop three points at some stage to the teams provided.

In all probability we'll miss out on the play-offs at the end by a short margin, as so often is the case with recent seasons. Obviously hope we can do it and be proved incorrect.

[Charnwood]

I've just had a half hour to spare so have taken a look at the form of the teams in the top half of the table. With eleven games to play I've looked at the last 11 games played in Jan & Feb and calculated what would happen if that form was carried forward through March & April and what the outcomes would be.

What this suggests is that this could be the first season when 75 points won't be enough to make the play offs this year, I guess this has something to do with there not being one or two teams at the top running away with it as is often the case, and all the top teams seem to be taking turns in having a blip, therefore points are being more evenly shared.

Anyway for what it's worth the outcomes would be as follows.

Teams Ranked in projected finishing order, followed by current points, plus points won in last eleven games = total projected points.

1) Middlesbrough....66 + 23 = 89
2) Watford............65 + 24 = 89
3) Norwich............62 + 25 = 87
4) Derby...............65 + 20 = 85
5) Brentford...........61 + 21 = 82
6) Bournemouth......63 + 15 = 78
7) Wolves..............57 + 20 = 77
Ipswich............ 60 + 13 = 73


Whilst this projection is no exact science it clearly indicates that we will need to significantly up our game if we want to be involved in the play offs and we may need to set a higher than 75 points target figure if we don't want to set a "figure to fail".

Did the wife have a headache then, Charny? Some nice stats there, but I'm with the 'one game at a time' clan...it's hard enough to predict one result in this bloody league, let alone eleven.

I'm with you all the way No9 and most definitely will be taking it "one game at a time", but in reality until the play offs one game alone won't get us to the Premier League, that will be achieved by the sum of the parts which is what the originator of the thread was asking us to consider and comment on.

Ps: the missus is giving me a bloody headache, she's on part-time garden leave at the moment and keeps getting in my way..... I keep telling her that at 48 she needs to get herself another job, but she's having none of it!

[The Odious Mr Rossi]

I've just had a half hour to spare so have taken a look at the form of the teams in the top half of the table. With eleven games to play I've looked at the last 11 games played in Jan & Feb and calculated what would happen if that form was carried forward through March & April and what the outcomes would be.

What this suggests is that this could be the first season when 75 points won't be enough to make the play offs this year, I guess this has something to do with there not being one or two teams at the top running away with it as is often the case, and all the top teams seem to be taking turns in having a blip, therefore points are being more evenly shared.

Anyway for what it's worth the outcomes would be as follows.

Teams Ranked in projected finishing order, followed by current points, plus points won in last eleven games = total projected points.

1) Middlesbrough....66 + 23 = 89
2) Watford............65 + 24 = 89
3) Norwich............62 + 25 = 87
4) Derby...............65 + 20 = 85
5) Brentford...........61 + 21 = 82
6) Bournemouth......63 + 15 = 78
7) Wolves..............57 + 20 = 77
Ipswich............ 60 + 13 = 73


Whilst this projection is no exact science it clearly indicates that we will need to significantly up our game if we want to be involved in the play offs and we may need to set a higher than 75 points target figure if we don't want to set a "figure to fail".

I think that these stats are very interesting, and for me they confirm that we have had a serious problem this year, and worse than the other teams in the promotion chase.
I don't think it's realistic to expect our fortunes to take a dramatic upturn without changes made to both tactics and personnel.
People keep banging on about how other teams above us will drop points - well these statistics prove that we cant rely on what other teams do, we have to address our poor form and address it quickly or the promise shown in the first half of the season will count for nothing.

For what it's worth, I thought MM's estimate that 75 points would get a play-off place way too low - 80 points much more likely