How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

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Charnwood
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How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by Charnwood » Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:40 pm

I’ve just been looking back at the teams taking automatic promotion places over the past six seasons in League One and in particular how many points the team had to get to secure one of these places. Obviously we have one team less this season which we could assume means circa 4 points fewer required.

2018/19 94 points & 91 points
2017/18 98 points & 96 points
2016/17 100 points & 86 points
2015/16. 87 points & 85 points
2014/15 99 points & 91 points
2013/14 103 points & 94 points

Given how many teams are in contention this season the number required will probably be at the lower end say 87/86 points, and with one team less to play home and away it could be 83/82 points to make the cut, however this assumption could be risky.

After 25 games played we have 42 points, two short of being in the Top 2 places. ( Avg 1.68 points per game)

If we’re going to get to 82 points by the end of the season we would need 40 points from our remaining 19 games which is an average of more than 2 points per game.

With 11 Home games, if we win them all that’s 33 points, and if we draw every away game that’s 9 points making a total of 42 points. This would give us and end of season total of 84 points.

Even if you add 4 points for the two fewer games our equivalent total would be 88 points which would only be enough for one of the automatic places in two of the last six seasons.

Lots of assumptions I know, but looking at the numbers we definitely still have a lot to do to ensure we fill one of the two top slots.

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by hallamblue » Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:00 pm

Excuse me if I’m being a bit thick here . But if we are 1 team less this season ( x 2 matches and 6 points) why only 4 points ?

Also , win all our 11 remaining games ( I know is an assumption), but we are less than crap at home this season, so I just can’t see us winning even 50% based on our form to-date, sadly .


Edit : has every club played Bury x1 this season does anyone know?

Just playing around with numbers myself here .
The mean ( average) number if points for second place over last 6 seasons is 90.4

If assuming every club has played Bury x1 this season , this means there would be 3 points less to play for . So 90.4 less 3 points makes an average of 87.4 points needed to gain second place thus season.

We’ve got 42 points now ..... we’d need a further 45points over the remaining games to obtain 2nd place?

Is that doable, especially given we have yet to beat shy of the top 6 clubs ?


All good fun surmising though .

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by Charnwood » Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:17 pm

Hey Liz I’ve assumed in the two games not played the top two teams would have averaged 4 points from these two games and not won both.

I know we won’t win all our homes although I expect us to win maybe 8 of them which would require us to win 3 away which is more than realistic given our away results so far.

I’ve not checked on the Bury situation you describe as I’ve assumed all Bury results have been stripped out.

There’s no exact science to my thread, just asking how many points people think we need to secure one of the Top 2 places based on previous seasons requirements.

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by derick_ipsw » Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:43 pm

I don't know how many points we would need but as long as its more than the team in 3rd place that will do me. :wink:

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by Bluemike » Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:57 pm

This is my take on it from the Accrington preview...
We have Twenty One games left and I believe we need to win around Fourteen of those to achieve a Top Two finish, that would give us a minimum of Eighty points and the way teams in and around us continue to lose too that would almost certainly be enough, as Charnwood has repeatedly said it is going to be nigh on impossible without a marked improvement in our home form, that has to change and I still think it will, there have been games at home we really should have won but just lacked the killer instinct, (Sunderland, Wycombe, Blackpool and Gillingham all spring to mind) so we arent too far away and that is without performances being anything special, if we can step it up 10% I genuinely believe we can do it even if Fourteen wins does sound a lot. 

It takes me to the fixture list and I start counting the "should win games", for instance at home the likes of Accrington, Lincoln, Burton Albion, Southend, Bolton, Rochdale & MK Dons should really all be well within our capabilities of gaining wins, that's seven wins right there, that leaves us with some shall we say trickier home games against Peterborough, Oxford, Coventry & Portsmouth which could clearly go either way, some we'll win and some we'll lose. Away from home needs to be fruitful too and thankfully we are still top of the form table on our travels, I look at the likes of Tranmere, Wimbledon & Shrewsbury and see Three games that we should be able to win, that takes the wins to Ten (easy isn't it ??), this leaves trips to Oxford, Rotherham, Sunderland, Blackpool, Bristol Rovers and Doncaster, we are going to have to find a couple of wins from that lot too and that's on the assumption we win the games I have highlighted. It'[s not going to be easy but it is definitely achievable if we go about it in the right way, every team striving for promotion will be faced with the same scenario, if there is any truth in our players ending the season fitter due to rotation etc Lambert could well have played a master card, time will tell. 
Since then we have beaten Accrington and drawn at Oxford, I still think we will be there at the end, yes our home form has been inconsistent but we have a fair few winnable home games to come and I fancy us anywhere away from home. Looking at the games in League one coming up, everyone plays everyone and points are going to be dropped, I think 80 points could even clinch second place this time around, from this perspective it's good so many teams are still in with a shout.

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by Charnwood » Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:27 pm

Bluemike wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:57 pm
This is my take on it from the Accrington preview...
We have Twenty One games left and I believe we need to win around Fourteen of those to achieve a Top Two finish, that would give us a minimum of Eighty points and the way teams in and around us continue to lose too that would almost certainly be enough, as Charnwood has repeatedly said it is going to be nigh on impossible without a marked improvement in our home form, that has to change and I still think it will, there have been games at home we really should have won but just lacked the killer instinct, (Sunderland, Wycombe, Blackpool and Gillingham all spring to mind) so we arent too far away and that is without performances being anything special, if we can step it up 10% I genuinely believe we can do it even if Fourteen wins does sound a lot. 

It takes me to the fixture list and I start counting the "should win games", for instance at home the likes of Accrington, Lincoln, Burton Albion, Southend, Bolton, Rochdale & MK Dons should really all be well within our capabilities of gaining wins, that's seven wins right there, that leaves us with some shall we say trickier home games against Peterborough, Oxford, Coventry & Portsmouth which could clearly go either way, some we'll win and some we'll lose. Away from home needs to be fruitful too and thankfully we are still top of the form table on our travels, I look at the likes of Tranmere, Wimbledon & Shrewsbury and see Three games that we should be able to win, that takes the wins to Ten (easy isn't it ??), this leaves trips to Oxford, Rotherham, Sunderland, Blackpool, Bristol Rovers and Doncaster, we are going to have to find a couple of wins from that lot too and that's on the assumption we win the games I have highlighted. It'[s not going to be easy but it is definitely achievable if we go about it in the right way, every team striving for promotion will be faced with the same scenario, if there is any truth in our players ending the season fitter due to rotation etc Lambert could well have played a master card, time will tell. 
Since then we have beaten Accrington and drawn at Oxford, I still think we will be there at the end, yes our home form has been inconsistent but we have a fair few winnable home games to come and I fancy us anywhere away from home. Looking at the games in League one coming up, everyone plays everyone and points are going to be dropped, I think 80 points could even clinch second place this time around, from this perspective it's good so many teams are still in with a shout.
..... and the more teams that stay in the hunt the fewer points will be needed to be in the Top 2.

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by Bluemike » Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:32 pm

Yes bang on Andy, that's my thinking

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by Charnwood » Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:29 pm

I think we could go the rest of the season unbeaten at Portman Road with wins v Lincoln, Peterborough, Fleetwood, Portsmouth, Southend, Bolton, Rochdale and Mk.Dons. A further three home draws v Burton, Oxford and Coventry would give us 27 home points.

Away I think we could pick up wins at Tranmere and Wimbledon especially if we can relearn how to pull off 0-1 wins away from home. I see draws at Blackpool, Bristol Rovers, Shrewsbury and Doncaster and defeats at the hands of Rotherham United and Sunderland. If my predictions are correct we could expect a further 10 away points making a total of 37 points.

Add these to the 42 we already have and our season total would be 79 which I think would mean a place in the play offs.

Somewhere along the way I think we’d need at least one of my predicted draws to be a Town win, even this could still leave us short with 81 points.

What this detailed look at our remaining fixtures tells me, is that automatic promotion won’t come on a plate and will require a lot of hard work by our manager and the players.

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by hallamblue » Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:40 pm

Charnwood wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:17 pm
Hey Liz I’ve assumed in the two games not played the top two teams would have averaged 4 points from these two games and not won both.

I know we won’t win all our homes although I expect us to win maybe 8 of them which would require us to win 3 away which is more than realistic given our away results so far.

I’ve not checked on the Bury situation you describe as I’ve assumed all Bury results have been stripped out.

There’s no exact science to my thread, just asking how many points people think we need to secure one of the Top 2 places based on previous seasons requirements.
Ah I see thanks Andy 👍.....

I think there will be a lot Calculating and re calculating before the end of the season. It’s going to be nip and tuck all the way. Nothing’s ever easy where Town are concerned as we all know from experience. It’s right when you say the more teams involved the less points will be required to gain promotion, but there’s also a greater risk of missing out at the death, because there are more Teams in the mix, eg The margins for error reduces.

Exciting in one way, but a bloody nightmare for the old ticker in many others. Pack yer beta blockers, ( I am )!

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by rossi » Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:57 pm

Like you say, it's impossible to apply any sort of scientific attempt at a prediction. But as there is no run-away leader to date - and given how tight the top half of the table is - I suspect that the number of points required to achieve automatic promotion will be a lot less than normal.

As to your question of how many points WE will need to achieve a top 2 place - I suspect that the answer is we will need more points than we actually obtain.

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by Charnwood » Thu Jan 16, 2020 4:45 pm

rossi wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:57 pm
Like you say, it's impossible to apply any sort of scientific attempt at a prediction. But as there is no run-away leader to date - and given how tight the top half of the table is - I suspect that the number of points required to achieve automatic promotion will be a lot less than normal.

As to your question of how many points WE will need to achieve a top 2 place - I suspect that the answer is we will need more points than we actually obtain.

You could be right Rossi but I hope you’re wrong.

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