How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

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How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by Charnwood » Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:40 pm

I’ve just been looking back at the teams taking automatic promotion places over the past six seasons in League One and in particular how many points the team had to get to secure one of these places. Obviously we have one team less this season which we could assume means circa 4 points fewer required.

2018/19 94 points & 91 points
2017/18 98 points & 96 points
2016/17 100 points & 86 points
2015/16. 87 points & 85 points
2014/15 99 points & 91 points
2013/14 103 points & 94 points

Given how many teams are in contention this season the number required will probably be at the lower end say 87/86 points, and with one team less to play home and away it could be 83/82 points to make the cut, however this assumption could be risky.

After 25 games played we have 42 points, two short of being in the Top 2 places. ( Avg 1.68 points per game)

If we’re going to get to 82 points by the end of the season we would need 40 points from our remaining 19 games which is an average of more than 2 points per game.

With 11 Home games, if we win them all that’s 33 points, and if we draw every away game that’s 9 points making a total of 42 points. This would give us and end of season total of 84 points.

Even if you add 4 points for the two fewer games our equivalent total would be 88 points which would only be enough for one of the automatic places in two of the last six seasons.

Lots of assumptions I know, but looking at the numbers we definitely still have a lot to do to ensure we fill one of the two top slots.

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by hallamblue » Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:00 pm

Excuse me if I’m being a bit thick here . But if we are 1 team less this season ( x 2 matches and 6 points) why only 4 points ?

Also , win all our 11 remaining games ( I know is an assumption), but we are less than crap at home this season, so I just can’t see us winning even 50% based on our form to-date, sadly .


Edit : has every club played Bury x1 this season does anyone know?

Just playing around with numbers myself here .
The mean ( average) number if points for second place over last 6 seasons is 90.4

If assuming every club has played Bury x1 this season , this means there would be 3 points less to play for . So 90.4 less 3 points makes an average of 87.4 points needed to gain second place thus season.

We’ve got 42 points now ..... we’d need a further 45points over the remaining games to obtain 2nd place?

Is that doable, especially given we have yet to beat shy of the top 6 clubs ?


All good fun surmising though .

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by Charnwood » Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:17 pm

Hey Liz I’ve assumed in the two games not played the top two teams would have averaged 4 points from these two games and not won both.

I know we won’t win all our homes although I expect us to win maybe 8 of them which would require us to win 3 away which is more than realistic given our away results so far.

I’ve not checked on the Bury situation you describe as I’ve assumed all Bury results have been stripped out.

There’s no exact science to my thread, just asking how many points people think we need to secure one of the Top 2 places based on previous seasons requirements.

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by derick_ipsw » Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:43 pm

I don't know how many points we would need but as long as its more than the team in 3rd place that will do me. :wink:

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by Bluemike » Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:57 pm

This is my take on it from the Accrington preview...
We have Twenty One games left and I believe we need to win around Fourteen of those to achieve a Top Two finish, that would give us a minimum of Eighty points and the way teams in and around us continue to lose too that would almost certainly be enough, as Charnwood has repeatedly said it is going to be nigh on impossible without a marked improvement in our home form, that has to change and I still think it will, there have been games at home we really should have won but just lacked the killer instinct, (Sunderland, Wycombe, Blackpool and Gillingham all spring to mind) so we arent too far away and that is without performances being anything special, if we can step it up 10% I genuinely believe we can do it even if Fourteen wins does sound a lot. 

It takes me to the fixture list and I start counting the "should win games", for instance at home the likes of Accrington, Lincoln, Burton Albion, Southend, Bolton, Rochdale & MK Dons should really all be well within our capabilities of gaining wins, that's seven wins right there, that leaves us with some shall we say trickier home games against Peterborough, Oxford, Coventry & Portsmouth which could clearly go either way, some we'll win and some we'll lose. Away from home needs to be fruitful too and thankfully we are still top of the form table on our travels, I look at the likes of Tranmere, Wimbledon & Shrewsbury and see Three games that we should be able to win, that takes the wins to Ten (easy isn't it ??), this leaves trips to Oxford, Rotherham, Sunderland, Blackpool, Bristol Rovers and Doncaster, we are going to have to find a couple of wins from that lot too and that's on the assumption we win the games I have highlighted. It'[s not going to be easy but it is definitely achievable if we go about it in the right way, every team striving for promotion will be faced with the same scenario, if there is any truth in our players ending the season fitter due to rotation etc Lambert could well have played a master card, time will tell. 
Since then we have beaten Accrington and drawn at Oxford, I still think we will be there at the end, yes our home form has been inconsistent but we have a fair few winnable home games to come and I fancy us anywhere away from home. Looking at the games in League one coming up, everyone plays everyone and points are going to be dropped, I think 80 points could even clinch second place this time around, from this perspective it's good so many teams are still in with a shout.

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by Charnwood » Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:27 pm

Bluemike wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:57 pm
This is my take on it from the Accrington preview...
We have Twenty One games left and I believe we need to win around Fourteen of those to achieve a Top Two finish, that would give us a minimum of Eighty points and the way teams in and around us continue to lose too that would almost certainly be enough, as Charnwood has repeatedly said it is going to be nigh on impossible without a marked improvement in our home form, that has to change and I still think it will, there have been games at home we really should have won but just lacked the killer instinct, (Sunderland, Wycombe, Blackpool and Gillingham all spring to mind) so we arent too far away and that is without performances being anything special, if we can step it up 10% I genuinely believe we can do it even if Fourteen wins does sound a lot. 

It takes me to the fixture list and I start counting the "should win games", for instance at home the likes of Accrington, Lincoln, Burton Albion, Southend, Bolton, Rochdale & MK Dons should really all be well within our capabilities of gaining wins, that's seven wins right there, that leaves us with some shall we say trickier home games against Peterborough, Oxford, Coventry & Portsmouth which could clearly go either way, some we'll win and some we'll lose. Away from home needs to be fruitful too and thankfully we are still top of the form table on our travels, I look at the likes of Tranmere, Wimbledon & Shrewsbury and see Three games that we should be able to win, that takes the wins to Ten (easy isn't it ??), this leaves trips to Oxford, Rotherham, Sunderland, Blackpool, Bristol Rovers and Doncaster, we are going to have to find a couple of wins from that lot too and that's on the assumption we win the games I have highlighted. It'[s not going to be easy but it is definitely achievable if we go about it in the right way, every team striving for promotion will be faced with the same scenario, if there is any truth in our players ending the season fitter due to rotation etc Lambert could well have played a master card, time will tell. 
Since then we have beaten Accrington and drawn at Oxford, I still think we will be there at the end, yes our home form has been inconsistent but we have a fair few winnable home games to come and I fancy us anywhere away from home. Looking at the games in League one coming up, everyone plays everyone and points are going to be dropped, I think 80 points could even clinch second place this time around, from this perspective it's good so many teams are still in with a shout.
..... and the more teams that stay in the hunt the fewer points will be needed to be in the Top 2.

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by Bluemike » Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:32 pm

Yes bang on Andy, that's my thinking

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by Charnwood » Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:29 pm

I think we could go the rest of the season unbeaten at Portman Road with wins v Lincoln, Peterborough, Fleetwood, Portsmouth, Southend, Bolton, Rochdale and Mk.Dons. A further three home draws v Burton, Oxford and Coventry would give us 27 home points.

Away I think we could pick up wins at Tranmere and Wimbledon especially if we can relearn how to pull off 0-1 wins away from home. I see draws at Blackpool, Bristol Rovers, Shrewsbury and Doncaster and defeats at the hands of Rotherham United and Sunderland. If my predictions are correct we could expect a further 10 away points making a total of 37 points.

Add these to the 42 we already have and our season total would be 79 which I think would mean a place in the play offs.

Somewhere along the way I think we’d need at least one of my predicted draws to be a Town win, even this could still leave us short with 81 points.

What this detailed look at our remaining fixtures tells me, is that automatic promotion won’t come on a plate and will require a lot of hard work by our manager and the players.

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by hallamblue » Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:40 pm

Charnwood wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:17 pm
Hey Liz I’ve assumed in the two games not played the top two teams would have averaged 4 points from these two games and not won both.

I know we won’t win all our homes although I expect us to win maybe 8 of them which would require us to win 3 away which is more than realistic given our away results so far.

I’ve not checked on the Bury situation you describe as I’ve assumed all Bury results have been stripped out.

There’s no exact science to my thread, just asking how many points people think we need to secure one of the Top 2 places based on previous seasons requirements.
Ah I see thanks Andy 👍.....

I think there will be a lot Calculating and re calculating before the end of the season. It’s going to be nip and tuck all the way. Nothing’s ever easy where Town are concerned as we all know from experience. It’s right when you say the more teams involved the less points will be required to gain promotion, but there’s also a greater risk of missing out at the death, because there are more Teams in the mix, eg The margins for error reduces.

Exciting in one way, but a bloody nightmare for the old ticker in many others. Pack yer beta blockers, ( I am )!

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by rossi » Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:57 pm

Like you say, it's impossible to apply any sort of scientific attempt at a prediction. But as there is no run-away leader to date - and given how tight the top half of the table is - I suspect that the number of points required to achieve automatic promotion will be a lot less than normal.

As to your question of how many points WE will need to achieve a top 2 place - I suspect that the answer is we will need more points than we actually obtain.

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by Charnwood » Thu Jan 16, 2020 4:45 pm

rossi wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:57 pm
Like you say, it's impossible to apply any sort of scientific attempt at a prediction. But as there is no run-away leader to date - and given how tight the top half of the table is - I suspect that the number of points required to achieve automatic promotion will be a lot less than normal.

As to your question of how many points WE will need to achieve a top 2 place - I suspect that the answer is we will need more points than we actually obtain.

You could be right Rossi but I hope you’re wrong.

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by Charnwood » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:11 pm

Charnwood wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:29 pm
I think we could go the rest of the season unbeaten at Portman Road with wins v Lincoln, Peterborough, Fleetwood, Portsmouth, Southend, Bolton, Rochdale and Mk.Dons. A further three home draws v Burton, Oxford and Coventry would give us 27 home points.

Away I think we could pick up wins at Tranmere and Wimbledon especially if we can relearn how to pull off 0-1 wins away from home. I see draws at Blackpool, Bristol Rovers, Shrewsbury and Doncaster and defeats at the hands of Rotherham United and Sunderland. If my predictions are correct we could expect a further 10 away points making a total of 37 points.

Add these to the 42 we already have and our season total would be 79 which I think would mean a place in the play offs.

Somewhere along the way I think we’d need at least one of my predicted draws to be a Town win, even this could still leave us short with 81 points.

What this detailed look at our remaining fixtures tells me, is that automatic promotion won’t come on a plate and will require a lot of hard work by our manager and the players.

Well that’s the win at Tranmere in the bag, next stop a home win next Saturday v Lincoln City 👍

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by Dubai Blue » Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:31 am

Interesting thread, especially when you realise that the same question is probably being asked on forums of the supporters of the other top 10 clubs (at least).

IMO this is a really tight league and as someone already said there is no runaway leader at the moment (although Rotherham are showing consistent form right now). We can be fairly certain that the requirement is likely to be well down on the recent average but there is still time for a couple of teams to pull clear of the rest. It was really disappointing to see Wycombe get their last gasp win yesterday as they have been dropping like a stone recently and another failure to win might have kept their bad run going as well as given us second place.

So far we have generally made good progress by beating all of the lower teams and doing averagely against the teams around us. If we can keep beating the lower teams and get draws against the teams around us then this should work for us as others are regularly dropping points against the lower teams.

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by Ando » Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:28 am

Hard to predict a number. Luton lost 6, 94 points and Barnsley 7, 91 last season, Rotherham are currently top and have already lost 7. So at this stage the league seems really tight. Usually you find a team emerges from the pack and goes on a really good run and pulls away or sneaks into the top 2 or play offs. I think low to mid 80’s will put a team threw or there abouts.

If we fail to finish top 2 it will likely be the draws that kill us just being undefeated is not enough. Let’s hope we can keep winning but we have drawn a lot sine PL came to the club.

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by tangfastic » Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:50 am

Dubai Blue wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:31 am
Interesting thread, especially when you realise that the same question is probably being asked on forums of the supporters of the other top 10 clubs (at least).

IMO this is a really tight league and as someone already said there is no runaway leader at the moment (although Rotherham are showing consistent form right now). We can be fairly certain that the requirement is likely to be well down on the recent average but there is still time for a couple of teams to pull clear of the rest. It was really disappointing to see Wycombe get their last gasp win yesterday as they have been dropping like a stone recently and another failure to win might have kept their bad run going as well as given us second place.

So far we have generally made good progress by beating all of the lower teams and doing averagely against the teams around us. If we can keep beating the lower teams and get draws against the teams around us then this should work for us as others are regularly dropping points against the lower teams.
Agree with that. It’s so tight that it’s not about the number of wins we need or the points we need as so many team are in the same situation. If we need 12 wins, a couple of teams might need 11 wins and another 10 teams need 12/13/14 wins. Even Stevens.

Its possible we could keep on beating the lower sides and draw with the top ten sides and still go up, but I’m expecting 2 or 3 teams to get a run together and move clear. If we expect other teams to drop points, then it’s mostly about them than us. Some big games in late Jan/ Feb and a number of six-pointers there for the taking.

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by Charnwood » Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:11 pm

What I do know is that win yesterday was so important and shouldn’t be underestimated.

With 7 of the Top 8 teams all winning yesterday, anything less than a win would have been damaging to our cause. Unless their form changes sometime soon Oxford look like falling away, whilst Portsmouth, Burton and Donny are sitting in the wings waiting to pounce. Peterborough United for that matter look completely done, f*ck knows what’s happened there.

As I see it at the moment the Top 2 Automatic promotion places look to be a four way fight between ourselves, Rotherham United, Coventry City and Sunderland. Certainly in the five or six weeks between 28 Jan when we go to Rotherham and 7 March when we entertain Coventry at Portman Road with Sunderland in between, we have a fine opportunity to be in control of our own destiny with three 6 pointers in the true sense of the words. In this period we also have Oxford United and Burton Albion coming to Portman Road and in these game have a chance to severely scupper any ideas they have of taking one of the play off places.

I’ve never much taken any interest in the League One promotion race but I can’t think there can have been many seasons when so many clubs are so seriously involved, in fact as it stands more than half the clubs in the League are within 4 points of a play off place down to Lincoln City (12th) 37 points with Oxford United (5th) 41 points.

There’s certainly no room for error or indeed “blips” as PL called our 7 points from a possible 21 in Nov/ Dec. Another one of those and we would be done for.

Definitely time to stay on a good run, and yes 80+ points could/should be good enough.

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by Charnwood » Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:11 pm

What I do know is that win yesterday was so important and shouldn’t be underestimated.

With 7 of the Top 8 teams all winning yesterday, anything less than a win would have been damaging to our cause. Unless their form changes sometime soon Oxford look like falling away, whilst Portsmouth, Burton and Donny are sitting in the wings waiting to pounce. Peterborough United for that matter look completely done, f*ck knows what’s happened there.

As I see it at the moment the Top 2 Automatic promotion places look to be a four way fight between ourselves, Rotherham United, Coventry City and Sunderland. Certainly in the five or six weeks between 28 Jan when we go to Rotherham and 7 March when we entertain Coventry at Portman Road with Sunderland in between, we have a fine opportunity to be in control of our own destiny with three 6 pointers in the true sense of the words. In this period we also have Oxford United and Burton Albion coming to Portman Road and in these game have a chance to severely scupper any ideas they have of taking one of the play off places.

I’ve never much taken any interest in the League One promotion race but I can’t think there can have been many seasons when so many clubs are so seriously involved, in fact as it stands more than half the clubs in the League are within 4 points of a play off place down to Lincoln City (12th) 37 points with Oxford United (5th) 41 points.

There’s certainly no room for error or indeed “blips” as PL called our 7 points from a possible 21 in Nov/ Dec. Another one of those and we would be done for.

Definitely time to stay on a good run, and yes 80+ points could/should be good enough.

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by Charnwood » Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:12 pm

What I do know is that win yesterday was so important and shouldn’t be underestimated.

With 7 of the Top 8 teams all winning yesterday, anything less than a win would have been damaging to our cause. Unless their form changes sometime soon Oxford look like falling away, whilst Portsmouth, Burton and Donny are sitting in the wings waiting to pounce. Peterborough United for that matter look completely done, f*ck knows what’s happened there.

As I see it at the moment the Top 2 Automatic promotion places look to be a four way fight between ourselves, Rotherham United, Coventry City and Sunderland. Certainly in the five or six weeks between 28 Jan when we go to Rotherham and 7 March when we entertain Coventry at Portman Road with Sunderland in between, we have a fine opportunity to be in control of our own destiny with three 6 pointers in the true sense of the words. In this period we also have Oxford United and Burton Albion coming to Portman Road and in these game have a chance to severely scupper any ideas they have of taking one of the play off places.

I’ve never much taken any interest in the League One promotion race but I can’t think there can have been many seasons when so many clubs are so seriously involved, in fact as it stands more than half the clubs in the League are within 4 points of a play off place down to Lincoln City (12th) 37 points with Oxford United (5th) 41 points.

There’s certainly no room for error or indeed “blips” as PL called our 7 points from a possible 21 in Nov/ Dec. Another one of those and we would be done for.

Definitely time to stay on a good run, and yes 80+ points could/should be good enough.

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by Ando » Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:43 pm

I think last season in League 1 it was the bottom that was really tight with only 4 points separating the middle of the table to the relegation spots right up to the end of the season. This season it looks like relegation will come from Accrington down.

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by Charnwood » Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:19 pm

Although it may be premature to say, with only three teams relegated this season and Bolton and Southend almost certain to fill two of them, I’ll be surprised if it isn’t simply a choice of any one from two between Tranmere Rovers and MK Dons to fill the other place. That said if Accrington are going to avoid being sucked in they will certainly need to up their game after 3 consecutive defeats including yesterday’s shock loss at home to Southend.

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Re: How many points will we need for automatic promotion.

Post by Andym » Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:57 pm

Glad to see recent results have moved us into the top half of the form table.....with Peterboro currently at the bottom.

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