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derick_ipsw wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:52 am

As i have said before, we just need more points than the Team in 3rd. Simples.

Yep concentrate on ourselves and see where it takes us. Teams above us still have to play each other. There is so much to play for. If we finish higher than Wycombe then it’s a top 6 finish as I still believe they are the ones to miss out.

I still think we are destined for a day out at Wembley.

saint jude wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 16, 2020 12:59 am

Issue seems void as believe the team won't finish within the top two. Not much in it in way of points but the top six above have the same ideas and objective and will be fighting just as hard as anyone else with the opportunity.

Took the time to view last three seasons within this league and top two teams and points tally went as follows :

Luton 94, Barnsley 91
Wigan 98, Blackburn 96
Sheffield United 100, Bolton 86

All hypothetical for us of course but guessing a minimum of 85 will ensure an auto place and 95 should confirm it. We're just over 50 with about twelve fixtures remaining. 36 points available which could push it to around 88 but would need to win each game from here on. Just seems improbable that we'll do it. Team's too inconsistent and we have trouble beating those in the top ten, wish I could be more hopeful but think we've left too much to do and in not enough time to do it.

You could have saved yourself some time SJ, all you needed to do is look at my opening post on this thread and all the numbers are there for you for the last six seasons.

The number of points likely to be needed for automatic promotion will most likely be much fewer this season compared with previous seasons for two reasons. Firstly there are two matches fewer played due to Bury FC folding. Secondly there are more clubs than usual involved in the promotion race which means the points are spread thinner, as it stands all clubs in the top half of the table could qualify for the play offs.

Issue seems void but write a book anyway lol

Bluemike wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 16, 2020 7:23 pm

Issue seems void but write a book anyway lol

I can’t get my head around this league so, at the moment, it’s pretty much impossible to state a points total needed for promotion. Based on our season so far, I’d predict we finish outside the top six. I don’t think we can use the positive results from
August / September as reference as that was so long ago and we weren’t really playing good football then and seemed to be relying on our rivals being weak and missing chances. Yet.... we’re still only 5 points from top. That also says something about the other top teams in the league as they're also dropping points.

Top six is still very possible, but top two would rely on us having both good form and relying on 6 or 7 other clubs to keep on dropping points. A 5 points gap is very possible to claw away at, it’s just we have so many other teams to climb over. We’re not looking at, say, the Rotherham results, we’re looking at quite a number of others to go our way.

For now, I’m really just looking at the Oxford game where we’ve got a chance to build on from the Burton game. A decent performance and result and we’ve started to build some momentum and get much-needed confidence back into the squad. At the moment, our best chance for promotion is to get into the play-offs with some momentum / confidence behind us. If we win 3 of our next 4 games, we would be both in the top six and with a far better sniff of top two. A loss against Oxford and I think we might as well put top two out of our minds as that would drain whatever confidence we got from the Burton game.

tangfastic wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:12 am

I can’t get my head around this league so, at the moment, it’s pretty much impossible to state a points total needed for promotion. Based on our season so far, I’d predict we finish outside the top six. I don’t think we can use the positive results from
August / September as reference as that was so long ago and we weren’t really playing good football then and seemed to be relying on our rivals being weak and missing chances. Yet.... we’re still only 5 points from top. That also says something about the other top teams in the league as they're also dropping points.

Top six is still very possible, but top two would rely on us having both good form and relying on 6 or 7 other clubs to keep on dropping points. A 5 points gap is very possible to claw away at, it’s just we have so many other teams to climb over. We’re not looking at, say, the Rotherham results, we’re looking at quite a number of others to go our way.

For now, I’m really just looking at the Oxford game where we’ve got a chance to build on from the Burton game. A decent performance and result and we’ve started to build some momentum and get much-needed confidence back into the squad. At the moment, our best chance for promotion is to get into the play-offs with some momentum / confidence behind us. If we win 3 of our next 4 games, we would be both in the top six and with a far better sniff of top two. A loss against Oxford and I think we might as well put top two out of our minds as that would drain whatever confidence we got from the Burton game.

Agreed. Every game is vital now, but particularly important to win Oxford at home because:

1. A win builds on Burton result and creates momentum upwards
2. A win shows home form hoodoo is overcome as 8/12 remaining fixtures at home

No pressure then?

Charnwood wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 16, 2020 12:05 am

Charnwood wrote: ↑

Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:11 am

Charnwood wrote: ↑

Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:29 pm

I think we could go the rest of the season unbeaten at Portman Road with wins v Lincoln , Peterborough, Fleetwood, Portsmouth, Southend, Bolton, Rochdale and Mk.Dons. A further three home draws v Burton+, Oxford and Coventry would give us 27 home points.

Away I think we could pick up wins at Tranmere and Wimbledon especially if we can relearn how to pull off 0-1 wins away from home. I see draws at Blackpool, Bristol Rovers, Shrewsbury and Doncaster and defeats at the hands of Rotherham United and Sunderland. If my predictions are correct we could expect a further 10 away points making a total of 37 points.

Add these to the 42 we already have and our season total would be 79 which I think would mean a place in the play offs.

Somewhere along the way I think we’d need at least one of my predicted draws to be a Town win, even this could still leave us short with 81 points.

What this detailed look at our remaining fixtures tells me, is that automatic promotion won’t come on a plate and will require a lot of hard work by our manager and the players.

Still on course with three ticks, but after last nights poor showing the plan looks a little fragile.

We’re only 4 points adrift of where I thought we needed to be at this stage to achieve automatic promotion. If we can replicate today’s home performance, believe me this is still on.

Don’t give up yet, this is far from over.


League Table

Team............ P.. GD.. Pts
1 Rotherham Ud 31 24 57
2 Coventry City 30 15 57
3 Wycombe Wa. 32 5 56
4 Peterborough 33 26 55
5 Sunderland... 31 16 54
6 Portsmouth ...30 15 53
7 Ipswich Town..32 14 52
8 Fleetwood ....30 11 51


What’s interesting is Fleetwoods next two fixtures are against Portsmouth and Sunderland, hopefully they can work in our favour, two draws maybe.

Fleetwood also come to Portman Road on 3rd March, two days after Sunderland travel to Coventry who in turn come to Ipswich four days later.

Many twists and turns are still ahead of us,

With three ’s already on the plan I think it’s time to bring this thread to a close.

League Table

Team............ P.. GD.. Pts
1 Rotherham Ud 32 25 60
2 Coventry City 31 16 60
......
3 Wycombe Wa. 33 7 59
4 Sunderland... 32 19 57
5 Peterborough 33 26 55
6 Fleetwood ....31 12 54
........
7 Portsmouth ...31 14 53
8 Ipswich Town..33 13 52

Guess which of these teams is going backwards ?.......but..

....with Coventry v Rotherham and Sunderland v Fleetwood playing one another tonight and Oxford and Pompey also in action we’ll have a better idea of where we stand with most games in hand gone.

Worst case scenario down to 9th with the mid table bunch of Gillingham and Doncaster.

Still no reason why we can’t make the play offs even if nobody gives us a chance if we do.

It seems appropriate to rename the thread now that our chances of taking one of the Automatic Places has all but gone.

Even the Play Offs maybe a tall order given our current run of bad form but with four of the top teams drawing tonight and only picking up a point apiece this still isn’t over.

League Table

Team............ P.. GD.. Pts
1 Rotherham Ud 33 25 61
2 Coventry City 32 16 61
......
3 Wycombe Wa. 33 7 59
4 Sunderland... 33 19 58
5 Portsmouth ...32 14 56
6 Peterborough 33 26 55
.......
7 Fleetwood ....32 12 55
8 Oxford Utd.... 33 22 54
9 Ipswich Town..33 13 52

We’ve thought we’ve had crucial games before but IF we can win at Blackpool we could be back in the mix and in control of our own destiny again. March brings us three home fixtures out of four all against sides above us in the table, Fleetwood, Coventry and Portsmouth are all “six pointers” and whilst each has current better form all are winnable if Paul Lambert gets his act together and convinces the players they can be winners, That’s his job and that’s what he gets paid for. I just wish he could make the players believe because in my opinion that’s what’s missing. If we can stay in touch through this run of fixtures our run in compared with others gets much easier, whereas the teams above us have something like 14 or 15 games where they play against one another. I can see Peterborough and or Wycombe dropping out of the play off places which would leave one or even two places to be filled by one of Fleetwood, Oxford or Town. Surely this isn’t really over yet.

Loving your optimism Charnwood..... not sure I can share it yet. I need to see some reaction from the team, then maybe I will believe again

I guess my optimism is more about possibilities than probabilities.

If it wasn’t for the fact that we’d been sitting top of the table in Oct/ Nov with games in hand we’d definitely believe it was possible. If at that time we’d been like Rotherham or Pompey sitting mid table we’d all have far more belief. Maybe we should believe that our fortunes can still change for the good, whilst other teams can go off the boil, because the fact is as it currently stands, all teams still have 25% of their fixtures to play and many of the teams above us still have to play each other.

It’s far too early to give up and both fans and players alike have to believe its still possible to get out of this league at the first attempt. In my opinion our biggest problem is lack of belief.

Charnwood wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:29 pm

I guess my optimism is more about possibilities than probabilities.

If it wasn’t for the fact that we’d been sitting top of the table in Oct/ Nov with games in hand we’d definitely believe it was possible. If at that time we’d been like Rotherham or Pompey sitting mid table we’d all have far more belief. Maybe we should believe that our fortunes can still change for the good, whilst other teams can go off the boil, because the fact is as it currently stands, all teams still have 25% of their fixtures to play and many of the teams above us still have to play each other.

It’s far too early to give up and both fans and players alike have to believe its still possible to get out of this league at the first attempt. In my opinion our biggest problem is lack of belief.

Not sure I agree with that - all recent interviews I have seen/read with players and the manager suggest that they still have plenty of belief.
The question for me is more like 'have we got the ability to get out of this league', and I cannot honestly answer that affirmatively.

rossi wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:48 pm

Charnwood wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:29 pm

I guess my optimism is more about possibilities than probabilities.

If it wasn’t for the fact that we’d been sitting top of the table in Oct/ Nov with games in hand we’d definitely believe it was possible. If at that time we’d been like Rotherham or Pompey sitting mid table we’d all have far more belief. Maybe we should believe that our fortunes can still change for the good, whilst other teams can go off the boil, because the fact is as it currently stands, all teams still have 25% of their fixtures to play and many of the teams above us still have to play each other.

It’s far too early to give up and both fans and players alike have to believe its still possible to get out of this league at the first attempt. In my opinion our biggest problem is lack of belief.

Not sure I agree with that - all recent interviews I have seen/read with players and the manager suggest that they still have plenty of belief.
The question for me is more like 'have we got the ability to get out of this league', and I cannot honestly answer that affirmatively.

It’s true that when the players give an interview they usually mention that they feel the team have the ability and class to be up there. That gives the impression that they have belief - but on the field that doesn’t seem to show. They look clueless at times.
Whatever ability we’ve got - we should be doing better. This “we’ve no divine right to win” statement is not some deep, mystical piece of wisdom to explain away our horrific form - it’s just an excuse...a footballing cliche. Something’s not right.

If it is a mental thing - it’s up to Lambert to deal with that or to pick mentally tougher players. If it’s about ability or squad strength then it’s up to Lambert to wheel n deal and get the best players he can for this league. You can’t keep on blaming Evans - we’ve got one of the biggest budgets in the league and it’s up to Lambert to use it as best as possible. In fact, I don’t see why Evans should put his hands in his pocket to buy new players if Lambert can’t get the best out of his existing players. There’s only two players who’s price tag has increased this season - and they’re home-grown.

tangfastic wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:56 pm

rossi wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:48 pm

Charnwood wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:29 pm

I guess my optimism is more about possibilities than probabilities.

If it wasn’t for the fact that we’d been sitting top of the table in Oct/ Nov with games in hand we’d definitely believe it was possible. If at that time we’d been like Rotherham or Pompey sitting mid table we’d all have far more belief. Maybe we should believe that our fortunes can still change for the good, whilst other teams can go off the boil, because the fact is as it currently stands, all teams still have 25% of their fixtures to play and many of the teams above us still have to play each other.

It’s far too early to give up and both fans and players alike have to believe its still possible to get out of this league at the first attempt. In my opinion our biggest problem is lack of belief.

Not sure I agree with that - all recent interviews I have seen/read with players and the manager suggest that they still have plenty of belief.
The question for me is more like 'have we got the ability to get out of this league', and I cannot honestly answer that affirmatively.

It’s true that when the players give an interview they usually mention that they feel the team have the ability and class to be up there. That gives the impression that they have belief - but on the field that doesn’t seem to show. They look clueless at times.
Whatever ability we’ve got - we should be doing better. This “we’ve no divine right to win” statement is not some deep, mystical piece of wisdom to explain away our horrific form - it’s just an excuse...a footballing cliche. Something’s not right.

If it is a mental thing - it’s up to Lambert to deal with that or to pick mentally tougher players. If it’s about ability or squad strength then it’s up to Lambert to wheel n deal and get the best players he can for this league. You can’t keep on blaming Evans - we’ve got one of the biggest budgets in the league and it’s up to Lambert to use it as best as possible. In fact, I don’t see why Evans should put his hands in his pocket to buy new players if Lambert can’t get the best out of his existing players. There’s only two players who’s price tag has increased this season - and they’re home-grown.

Not sure I agree. I think it's a combination of insufficient ability and tactics. When we've played well recently a lot over the foal threathe has come through Jackson's pace. There's not much creativity really. And when a team plays deep and defensive against us, that threat is pretty much removed account there is less space behind the back line.

Coupled with that are strikers who can't score. That's partly confidence, but Keane has never been prolific, Jackson is more about pace than finishing, Norwood is stepping up and Sears is.....Sears.

Our hopes were pinned on Norwood scoring regularly which has been hampered by injury and loss of confidence, and on Judge creating chances which he really hasn't done.

Andym wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:00 pm

tangfastic wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:56 pm

rossi wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:48 pm

Not sure I agree with that - all recent interviews I have seen/read with players and the manager suggest that they still have plenty of belief.
The question for me is more like 'have we got the ability to get out of this league', and I cannot honestly answer that affirmatively.

It’s true that when the players give an interview they usually mention that they feel the team have the ability and class to be up there. That gives the impression that they have belief - but on the field that doesn’t seem to show. They look clueless at times.
Whatever ability we’ve got - we should be doing better. This “we’ve no divine right to win” statement is not some deep, mystical piece of wisdom to explain away our horrific form - it’s just an excuse...a footballing cliche. Something’s not right.

If it is a mental thing - it’s up to Lambert to deal with that or to pick mentally tougher players. If it’s about ability or squad strength then it’s up to Lambert to wheel n deal and get the best players he can for this league. You can’t keep on blaming Evans - we’ve got one of the biggest budgets in the league and it’s up to Lambert to use it as best as possible. In fact, I don’t see why Evans should put his hands in his pocket to buy new players if Lambert can’t get the best out of his existing players. There’s only two players who’s price tag has increased this season - and they’re home-grown.

Not sure I agree. I think it's a combination of insufficient ability and tactics. When we've played well recently a lot over the foal threathe has come through Jackson's pace. There's not much creativity really. And when a team plays deep and defensive against us, that threat is pretty much removed account there is less space behind the back line.

Coupled with that are strikers who can't score. That's partly confidence, but Keane has never been prolific, Jackson is more about pace than finishing, Norwood is stepping up and Sears is.....Sears.

Our hopes were pinned on Norwood scoring regularly which has been hampered by injury and loss of confidence, and on Judge creating chances which he really hasn't done.

Summed up perfectly imo, apart from insufficient ability, there are not too many better technical players than hours. The issue at home is we goi for it and the majority of the goals conceded at home are from being counter attacked.

I guess come 10pm Tuesday night we could be completely back in the promotion race or completely out of it.

I wonder which it will be ?

Charnwood wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:05 pm

I guess come 10pm Tuesday night we could be completely back in the promotion race or completely out of it.

I wonder which it will be ?

or .... maybe still hovering around with an outside chance.

Put two wins together.... and we’re bound to be back in the mix. It’s hard to see where we can string back to back wins together at the minute, though. 4 wins in 22 games .... it’s been a seriously bumpy road.

That is a seriously concerning stat and as average and inconsistent as we have been I have to say it doesn't feel like it's been that bad to me, clearly I am delusional.

Amazing we're 9th with that record!

So who’s going to Blackpool? Are you excited to go to the beach? Margaritas as the sunsets I’m sure! Have fun, and don’t get caught in a dark alley with your trousers down!

I'm now making my way there yes. f*ck my life

Bluemike wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:58 am

I'm now making my way there yes. f*ck my life

I can’t believe your bloody resilience mate,

Wearing thin

Is this thread dead or alive ?

I think it's dead Andy, unfortunately

No I think we should keep it going. Even if there were only 5 games left we would still have a chance to reach the play-offs. If we lose both against Coventry & Portsmouth only then will I call this thread dead.

Teams are dropping points all around - there will be more twists & turns yet. I just hope that they involve us.