How will we end this season?

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Andym
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Re: How will we end this season?

Post by Andym » Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:29 pm

Dubai Blue wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:53 am

Also I would have my money on a vaccine being available well before the end of the year as those that are effective in trails that have already started will be fast tracked, although might well be needed in the 3rd world and for our healthcare workers long before we get our greasy paws on it.

Just my opinions of course.....
I admire your optimism that capitalism and greed won't return the moment this is over. I can't see Trump leading by example and saying "Let's look after the 3rd world before the USA". And many in this country who are now throwing away the perished food they overstocked with to look after no. 1 won't see it that way either. We live in an age of greed and grab what you can. The local shops doing all they can will be overlooked as people flock back to supermarkets who squeeze the producers, to large chain coffee shops and Amazon who avoid paying the taxes we will so desperately need.

Sorry but my faith in human nature and in governments is slightly lower than zero.

tangfastic
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Re: How will we end this season?

Post by tangfastic » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:04 pm

Dubai Blue wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:53 am
Number 9. I get what you say but my understanding about 'flattening the curve' is that once you have got the epidemic under some kind of control you actually ease the restrictions because you don't worry about people getting infected when you know they can be taken care of. It's likely that long before the end of the year we will also have an effective treatment and also will have significant herd immunity in the community. I don't see the world waiting for a vaccine before we get back to something approaching normal.

Also I would have my money on a vaccine being available well before the end of the year as those that are effective in trails that have already started will be fast tracked, although might well be needed in the 3rd world and for our healthcare workers long before we get our greasy paws on it.

Just my opinions of course.....
I agree with that .... I’m sure there’ll be plans to ease restrictions in stages. We shouldn’t be waiting for a vaccine, especially as the vast majority will only have minor symptoms if we get the virus.

I can’t see the world shutting down too long. For now, it’s imperative while we’re trying to contain the spread and now people are on pretty much on board with it. 4 weeks, 6 weeks etc down the line,however, I can see growing discontent from the population whereby you might hear some asking “why we are shutting down life so we can save just 80 year olds and sick people”. That sounds harsh and not my view, but I can see this happening. I think the will of the people and growing discontent will force the hand to ease the lockdown as well as the economic situation.

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number 9
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Re: How will we end this season?

Post by number 9 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:14 pm

I hope you're right, and the season resumes sooner rather than later. In the US they're now saying June 1st for lessening restrictions, but that could be extended. Trump just announced April 30th for social distancing which also may be extended. Unfortunately, one of the key components of 'herd immunity' is a vaccine. Experts are also saying the US could have over 100,000 deaths. I'm not sure what the projections are for the UK, but those numbers are not filling me with any confidence toward resuming normality.

tangfastic
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Re: How will we end this season?

Post by tangfastic » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:58 pm

number 9 wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:14 pm
I hope you're right, and the season resumes sooner rather than later. In the US they're now saying June 1st for lessening restrictions, but that could be extended. Trump just announced April 30th for social distancing which also may be extended. Unfortunately, one of the key components of 'herd immunity' is a vaccine. Experts are also saying the US could have over 100,000 deaths. I'm not sure what the projections are for the UK, but those numbers are not filling me with any confidence toward resuming normality.
I hate saying this, but 100,000 dead out of a population of 327 million is only 0.03 % of the population. 100,000 dead wouldn't be too bad a result for the US. I read there’s around 2.7 or 2.8 million people die every year in the States.

The expected figures are staggering, but they really have to considered against normal yearly death expectancy over a nation. So many people die from old age, heart disease and cancer per year even without the help from Coronavirus.

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nicscreamer
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Re: How will we end this season?

Post by nicscreamer » Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:09 pm

In the UK approx. 1500-2000 people normally die each day. This figure increases during winter and flu season by approx. 100-150 per day. Depending on how you count the Covid victims, this could increase daily deaths by between 15 and 30%. (given current daily death rate of 200-300 people. which is currently increasing each day ) A huge number. Certainly worth the effort to reduce as much as possible - No matter what age.....

I personally cant see restrictions being lifted in any way at all until end of April, then only slightly in May due to people not being able to stand it any longer. The economy will be destroyed by this and the unemployment figures will look like the 1920s on steroids. Fun times hey?

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JohnnyB
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Re: How will we end this season?

Post by JohnnyB » Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:25 am

Hey everyone- hope you’re doing alright.

I think ‘immunity passes’ are going to be a thing. This might be some paperwork or ID on people’s phone that says they’ve been tested and have already had coronavirus (sometimes very mildly) and are therefore ok to, for example:

Play team sports
Watch sports in a stadium

Could have massive implications for football. At the moment this is at the research stage in Germany but as it’s a way of partially restarting the economy while virus is still active, I could see it gaining traction quite quickly

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Dubai Blue
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Re: How will we end this season?

Post by Dubai Blue » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:09 am

JohnnyB I totally agree. It's not in research stage it's already implemented some time ago in China. It's used in Wuhan area to restrict access to things like public transport and certain buildings to those who have the code on their mobile phone.

Even more than that they are able to track the movements of those who didn't have the virus and detect if/when they meet someone who is a confirmed case, then force them into isolation.

Those later tools might not go down too well with us Brits but could be vital in the waves that may be to come.

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marko69
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Re: How will we end this season?

Post by marko69 » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:47 am

That all seems very advanced indeed in Wuhan. Almost like they (the chinese) had everything planned for YEARS! Get the tin foil hats on!

Seriously though, the stuff you read while in quarantine..... just don’t know what to believe anymore.

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Andym
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Re: How will we end this season?

Post by Andym » Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:27 pm

The problem us we have been very slow to test. People don't know if they've had it.

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JohnnyB
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Re: How will we end this season?

Post by JohnnyB » Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:11 pm

I think this country has been utterly complacent and negligent. Check out this from four years ago. It’s not that people didn’t see this coming

[url][https://youtu.be/6Af6b_wyiwI/url]

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