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Lucky or Unlucky?
Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:26 pm
by number 9
While the formula used to assess these values isn't necessarily accurate, it really hits the nail on the end unfortunately for Ipswich. I think this is where many of us see ITFC even though we're currently 3rd in the league. Interestingly, we have the oldest average age of players.
https://www.eadt.co.uk/sport/where-ipsw ... -1-6934472
Re: Lucky or Unlucky?
Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:49 pm
by marko69
Re: Lucky or Unlucky?
Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:04 pm
by hallamblue
But how would it look for Town if we won games by 1-0 margins (just like scum did when they got promoted under Lambert)...thats not scoring many goals per game, but the defence keeps opponents out , so you win the game. Being a high scoring side doesn't necessarily mean you win the game does it (obviously there's an increased chance that you will win but not guaranteed). Liverpool & Arsenal won titles on the back of numerous 1-0 wins I seem to recall.
Re: Lucky or Unlucky?
Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:24 pm
by number 9
hallamblue wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:04 pm
But how would it look for Town if we won games by 1-0 margins (just like scum did when they got promoted under Lambert)...thats not scoring many goals per game, but the defence keeps opponents out , so you win the game. Being a high scoring side doesn't necessarily mean you win the game does it (obviously there's an increased chance that you will win but not guaranteed). Liverpool & Arsenal won titles on the back of numerous 1-0 wins I seem to recall.
Good point, but are those 1-0 wins against competitive teams or the bottom feeders?
Re: Lucky or Unlucky?
Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 7:03 pm
by marko69
Can’t speak for Arsenal, but fairly sure Liverpool’s titles were because they were thumping teams left , right and centre. Dalglish, Souness, Kennedy, Whelan.... bit later with Ian Rush. Weren’t many 1-0’s.
Re: Lucky or Unlucky?
Posted: Sun Nov 22, 2020 6:44 am
by Dubai Blue
It's an interesting set of statistics indeed but a couple of points to come to mind:
1. "Explaining the method, website author Ben Mayhew writes: “As the expected goals model isn’t perfect, we can’t use these tables to say with certainty that a given team has been lucky (or unlucky) but it’s safe to say that significant differences tend not to be sustainable over the long run.” - This is plain wrong. These expected goals scored statistics are based on discrete probability. Averages over completed seasons and observations on whether they even out over the longer term are only seen through the back window. If we have any advantage up to now that is locked in and will have no effect on future results. A more accurate observation for me would be that if we are conceding less goals per chance and scoring more goals per chance then we must have either more accurate goalscorers or better defenders/keepers or both. I'll take that.
2. For me the bigger worry is the squad churn. This is because sides with more squad churn might be expected to take some time to get going and improve more over the season than us.
Re: Lucky or Unlucky?
Posted: Mon Nov 23, 2020 12:02 am
by hallamblue
number 9 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:24 pm
hallamblue wrote: ↑Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:04 pm
But how would it look for Town if we won games by 1-0 margins (just like scum did when they got promoted under Lambert)...thats not scoring many goals per game, but the defence keeps opponents out , so you win the game. Being a high scoring side doesn't necessarily mean you win the game does it (obviously there's an increased chance that you will win but not guaranteed). Liverpool & Arsenal won titles on the back of numerous 1-0 wins I seem to recall.
Good point, but are those 1-0 wins against competitive teams or the bottom feeders?
Couldn’t say #9 but in Towns case this season we have to start taking pints off the top six sides. We can’t expect / hope for promotion if we don’t .
Re: Lucky or Unlucky?
Posted: Mon Nov 23, 2020 12:14 am
by hallamblue
Dubai Blue wrote: ↑Sun Nov 22, 2020 6:44 am
It's an interesting set of statistics indeed but a couple of points to come to mind:
1. "Explaining the method, website author Ben Mayhew writes: “As the expected goals model isn’t perfect, we can’t use these tables to say with certainty that a given team has been lucky (or unlucky) but it’s safe to say that significant differences tend not to be sustainable over the long run.” - This is plain wrong. These expected goals scored statistics are based on discrete probability. Averages over completed seasons and observations on whether they even out over the longer term are only seen through the back window. If we have any advantage up to now that is locked in and will have no effect on future results. A more accurate observation for me would be that if we are conceding less goals per chance and scoring more goals per chance then we must have either more accurate goalscorers or better defenders/keepers or both. I'll take that.
2. For me the bigger worry is the squad churn. This is because sides with more squad churn might be expected to take some time to get going and improve more over the season than us.
Would I be right in interpreting what youve said above to mean .......?
1) %ages in our attacking penalty area and defending penalty area? Ie the higher % WE achieve in each box means over the course of the season we’re more likely to come out on top? Interestingly, I’m sure that was the very observation Lambert and his coaches concluded was wrong with us, when they sat in the stands at the Millwall match (away)when we lost and he was about to take over as manager.
2) squad rotation or changes to the team this season more due to (that old chestnut) “ injuries” , than PL rotating the squad and the ultimate effect of a side
“gelling”
I think amount of injuries to our senior first team players and the length of time they are taking to recover will determine our promotion credentials this season.
