The pathway to survival

[Bluemike]

Despite it being less a couple of times in recent years it is often accepted that the points total for survival is around the Forty point mark, for me the majority of those points will need to come at home against most of the teams that will almost inevitably finish in the lower half of the table. I have taken a look at where we can expect/need to pick up points and where we probably have little to no chance of being successful.

Basically and looking at worst case scenario I have written off games at home and away against what I deem to be the "big boys" and where points would in all probability be something of a surprise, which of course could, and probably will happen at some time or another. My feeling is that to hit the Forty point mark we will need to glean around Two Thirds of those at home (27 points) while accruing the other third (Thirteen points) on the road.

This is where I feel we will be picking up the points we need to survive..........

HOME

Free Hits - zero points expected

Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester Utd, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa.


Points Needed - at least a point, hopefully more

Fulham, Everton, Crystal palace, Newcastle Utd, West Ham Utd.


Must Wins - We need Seven, these look the most likely on paper.

Leicester City, Bournemouth, Brighton & Hove Albion, Southampton, Nottingham Forest, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Brentford



AWAY

Free Hits - Zero Points expected

Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester Utd, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa, Newcastle Utd, West Ham Utd.


We Need Four Draws from these

Brighton & Hove Albion, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Fulham, Everton, Crystal Palace.


Three Wins on the Road from somewhere - the most likely

Leicester City, Southampton, Nottingham Forest, Brentford, Bournemouth.


Clearly it's not going to work out exactly like that, there will be shocks, good and bad but I feel the crux of our points will have to come from the games highlighted to see us to safety. Wins from the games listed as possible draws helps no end to ease the pressure on the must wins. Obviously the most important thing is for us to get the right signings done in time for kick off and I am confident that will happen, we also still have Two big loans to come in, of that I am certain. For me this all highlights just how tough it is going to be, I mean had we said last season we really needed to win at Leicester we would all have thought it not likely and that looks on paper to be our easiest game to pick up points on the road.

Whatever the outcome I am sure we will give it one hell of a go and it will be exciting for certain, how nice would it be to get something from at least one of our opening Two games !! All just my thoughts for a bit of fun and it will be interesting to see how close it is come next May.

[Shed on tour]

Said to the person next to me on Saturday I see our home form as crucial towards our survival this coming season. Obviously we are going to lose more home games than we have the last couple of seasons, but the key is winning the one’s against teams that may very well be battling at the wrong end of the table.
I don’t expect anything from the first 2 games but the important thing is not to get hammered in both as that could really affect the players confidence. Whatever happens I’m just going to enjoy the ride as if we go down and then have to wait another 22 years to get back I don’t expect to be around to see it!

[shabba]

Season Pts
2009/10 30
2010/11 39
2011/12  36
2012/13 36
2013/14   33
2014/15 35
2015/16   37
2016/17  34
2017/18 33
2018/19 34
2019/20 34
2020/21 28
2021/22 35
2022/23 34
2023/24 26

Points for 18th placed teams - i.e add 1 point to stay up.

[Bluemike]

Yep, so 40 guarantees it pretty much.

[shabba]

Yeah but 35 is actually enough now most seasons.

[Bluemike]

Too close for comfort though.

[marko69]

What a great thread and superb breakdown of all scenarios. …… gearing up nicely for those Premier League match-day previews. Great stuff.

[Ricco]

Yeah, that list averages out at 33.6 pts I believe, it's a lower total these days it seems. I think perhaps because the top 6 (and a few other teams) hogging all the talent, making it increasingly tough for us, and others, at the bottom end of things.

You have to factor in points deductions too, there may well be some more this season. Also there will be many 'surprises', the list is a good one and gives a good picture of the season ahead, but as Rossi alluded to in the other thread, we need the mentality of trying to get points from every game. Aim for 40pts and you will get less than that, I guarantee. Aim for 65pts and you're more likely to get 45-50. Positivity and aggression is rewarded when it comes to winning attitudes, I think McKenna is very aware of that. I also think he'll be happy to accept the odd thumping, and not allow heads to drop over it, it'll be part of the plan, because it is a byproduct of approaching things in what I think is the right way to succeed over a season.

Don't know about you lot, but my nerves have just started to kick in

[Bluemike]

Yes it goes without saying we strive to win every game, that should always be the way, realistically we are going to lose a fair number of games, the list is merely an indication of where we are more likely to be successful and the importance of beating, or at least not losing, against teams who in all probability will be in and around us.

[arana peligrosa]

Kind of asks the question why even focus on survival particularly when no ball's even been kicked as yet for the new season. Sort of suggests we're giving up or resigning ourselves to a certain fate before the first game's even underway. All right it'll be tough and under no real illusions as to where we could feasibly find ourselves by the final game but would rather view it as say "we got to believe in ourselves, we possess players of ability (and) there are going to be worse club sides in the division than us over the nine months ahead" et cetera.

That alone would provide the team a fighting chance. We won't do a Leicester City from a few years recent where surprised everyone and won a league from virtually nowhere and we won't in all probability even finish in a European qualification place by the end of it but would expect at least to make a real go of it and end up somewhere mid-league or perhaps just lower.

We have new players coming in, some of the previous surplus names have moved on and we're in the process of building a side that at least will prove competitive. McKenna staying on for further season/s can only provide confidence or even enthusiasm to the team and Portman Road with a near capacity crowd can procure (hopefully) results or victories from a whole host of opposition sides we got ahead. Maybe being overly optimistic or the last two seasons ruling heart over real belief but read the thread and replies here and first instinct (being) we seem to be giving up before anything's really underway. Tired of (by now) the reiteration of 2001 and 5th place finish and that was then and this is now but point being all things are possible in this industry and it kind of doesn't suit the players or fanbase to behold a negative viewpoint in that we're going to be there just to make up numbers or hold up the division at any time of the season ahead.

[Bluemike]

Not giving up at all AP, I am normally very optimistic on most things Town, even when we had f**king Sears leading the line, it's more just a look at where we really need to pick up points and against who, with the best will in the world this is way way harder than when we finished 5th, the game has moved on massively.

While we all want and hope to win eery game, history tells us that in recent years it is indeed about survival for the promoted clubs and because survival and consolidation is the name of the game this season I would without question accept 17th while hoping and probably expecting better than that, my predicted finish is actually somewhere between 12th to 15th.

[Bluemike]

I'm gonna keep returning to this, my pathway to survival, tomorrow is a free hit game, anything from this is a massive bonus!!

[Bluemike]

Sadly as expected results wise

[TODD66]

Sadly as expected results wise

But not a feared for (and predicted by some 'expert' media types) thumping with many positives to be taken forward to our more 'winnable' fixtures.

[Bluemike]

Sadly as expected results wise

But not a feared for (and predicted by some 'expert' media types) thumping with many positives to be taken forward to our more 'winnable' fixtures.

Exactly that Todd and I hope we are saying the same after Saturday

[Bluemike]

Another of the free hit, zero points expected games have come and gone with the result also as predicted, unfortunately.

[Frosty]

God, if it wasn't for those 3 or 4 minutes, would have been interesting to see how the match played out

[Charnwood]

I think the 3 teams to be relegated are already sitting in the bottom 6 positions after the opening 2 games. After playing Liverpool and Manchester City in our opening 2 games I can’t believe we have 2 teams sitting below us.

15th Leicester City 2 -1 1
16th Southampton. 2 -2 0
17th Crystal Palace 2 -3 0
18th Ipswich Town. 2 -5 0
19th Wolverhampt 2 -6 0
20th Everton. 2 -7 0

To be honest it surprises me to see Palace down here especially after their amazing form at the end of last season. I’m just hoping and praying that starting from Saturday we can keep ourselves above the other 4 teams.

[Denny61]

Il break it down easily..we can't surmise we get no points from cereal games and a point from other games and so on ..Best way is remaining season broken up in quarters ...so nxt 9 games we need to be aiming for 9 points or more from a maximum of 27 ..

[Denny61]

Sorry typo ...certain..instead of cereal!! Lol

[Bluemike]

I think the 3 teams to be relegated are already sitting in the bottom 6 positions after the opening 2 games. After playing Liverpool and Manchester City in our opening 2 games I can’t believe we have 2 teams sitting below us.

15th Leicester City 2 -1 1
16th Southampton. 2 -2 0
17th Crystal Palace 2 -3 0
18th Ipswich Town. 2 -5 0
19th Wolverhampt 2 -6 0
20th Everton. 2 -7 0

To be honest it surprises me to see Palace down here especially after their amazing form at the end of last season. I’m just hoping and praying that starting from Saturday we can keep ourselves above the other 4 teams.

Palace were my tip to do well this season but losing some key players in really going to impact on them, I think they'll be fine though.

I can also see Forest, Bournemouth and Brentford in and around those teams you highlight

[Bluemike]

This Saturday’s game at home to Fulham is one where I have placed it in the category of needing to take something from the game, clearly a win would be ideal but "something" is required.

[hallamblue]

This lot is in effect our own “ mini league”. This is who we need to ideally beat / draw against and damage limitation against the top 6 in terms of goals conceded because I think GD is going to be crucial….


Leicester City
Brentford
Southampton
Crystal Palace
Wolverhampton
Everton
Forest
Bournemouth

[Charnwood]

Whilst teams like Bournemouth, Brentford and Forest will almost certainly end the season in the bottom half of the table I think both Bournemouth and Brentford have enough fire power to avoid be sucked into the relegation fight particularly Brentford if they manage to hold onto Ivan Toney.

Most important for us is to get the new boys onboard quickly and get a first win under our belt to get our confidence up.

[Charnwood]

Mike- I don’t understand what’s going on at Palace, they’ve already let Olise, Anderson and Ayew leave and it looks like Marc Guehi to Newcastle £70m and Edouard to Celtic will join them before the window closes on Friday. That’s 4 key players gone from the team that finished last season so strongly and were many people’s expected surprise package for this season.

[Bluemike]

It's ripped the guts out of them and incomings don't seem rife either.

[Charnwood]

They’ve bought a couple of players in from Marseille and Real Betis and are said to be close to signing Eddie Nketiah from Arsenal for £30m.

Without any other signings it would bag them £100m profit over the close season window. I can only think they’re close to the wire with the FFP rules and making sure they avoid a points deduction. I can’t think of any other explanation.

[Charnwood]

I assume Ashton and Co have done all their sums but I’m a tad worried our £100m spend must be somewhere close to our limit. The last thing we can afford is a 10 point deduction even if it’s not this season.

[Bluemike]

You would hope and think that Ashton and co are well on top of the situation, what is it, £105 million losses over 3 seasons the permitted amount?

[hallamblue]

I assume Ashton and Co have done all their sums but I’m a tad worried our £100m spend must be somewhere close to our limit. The last thing we can afford is a 10 point deduction even if it’s not this season.

I can't see the club breeching these rules. They attended the PL meeting concerning required finances, so they will know exactly what is allowed and what isn't.

If we spend £100m ( am I really typing these numbers lol) but say, recoup £10m from sales, is that offset against our spending?

The other thing is, if it's £100m over a 3 Yr period, once we've got the squad assembled we are unlikely to spend much next season, and would conceivably sell some players over that period to recoup.

I really do trust the clubs owners not to be reckless financially .