NOW FOR PROMOTION

[derick_ipsw]

Huddersfield first team to be relegated this season.

[Charnwood]

Huddersfield first team to be relegated this season.

My guess would be Fulham next sadly followed by our boys third.

[derick_ipsw]

Huddersfield first team to be relegated this season.

My guess would be Fulham next sadly followed by our boys third.

Yep they are down.

[Tangfastic]

Saw this blog from TWTD .... written by jayessness.

An overview of the last 6 seasons of relegated clubs from the Championship ... and their fortunes since. Thought it was a decent read and well researched. No one knows what will happen, but it’s not all doom and gloom.
I thought I’d tag it onto Dericks excellent ‘Relegation’ thread

What Now? Taking a Look at Life in League One
Written by jayessess on Thursday, 28th Mar 2019 17:18
I think it’s fair to say that Ipswich Town fans have been trained against optimism over the years and there’s now a proper streak of doom-mongering that runs right through our support.

Since we’ve found ourselves cut adrift there’s been no end of predictions of financial melt downs, fire sales of all our players, closing stands, spending a decade marooned in League One or even that we’ll fall straight into League Two. So, I thought I’d take a look at the reality of next season’s almost certain destination and the precedent for clubs like Ipswich going down.

Other Relegated Clubs

First the performances. The last six seasons saw the following relegated. 2018: Sunderland, Burton, Barnsley. 2017: Blackburn, Wigan, Rotherham. 2016: Charlton, MK Dons, Bolton. 2015: Millwall, Wigan, Blackpool. 2014: Doncaster, Barnsley, Yeovil. 2013: Peterborough, Wolves, Bristol City.

The 2018 victims are currently in second, fourth and 10th in League One, so, on course for automatic promotion, the play-offs and mid-table respectively.

Of the previous 15, lots of the names are immediately familiar as having returned pretty quickly. Three came back immediately as champions (Wolves, Wigan twice), twice as runners-up (Blackburn and Bolton) and another two came up via the play-offs (Rotherham and Millwall). In total seven out of the 15 spent only one season in the lower league before immediately making their way back.

Of the other eight not so lucky ones, one managed the play-offs (Peterborough), five finished mid-table (Bristol City, Doncaster, Barnsley, Charlton, MK Dons) and two were relegated a second time in succession (Yeovil, Blackpool).

Of the six that remained in League One for a second season, two were then promoted (one as champions Bristol City, another as play-off winners Barnsley), two were relegated to League Two (MK Dons and Doncaster) and two remain in League One (Charlton, Peterborough) - although both of them have made the play-offs since relegation.

Not terrible precedent then. Nine of 15 back within two seasons, two still in League One, four continued sliding. When we add in a quick look at the size of clubs involved, the precedent probably works even more in our favour.

If you list all the relegated clubs by average attendance during their relegation year, Ipswich Town would be third behind Sunderland and Wolves. The four teams to disappear into League Two were three of the five smallest plus MK Dons, whose bumper Championship attendances bely the general stature of that club.

Peterborough the third smallest were also one of the long stayers. Charlton Athletic, with their hated owner and club civil war, are the only outlier, marooned long-term in League One, despite being the third-biggest club to drop to that level. The trend has continued, with tiny Burton struggling and bigger Barnsley and Sunderland up near the top of the division.

So, Ipswich Town aren’t really the kind of club to struggle at this level, unless the fans are at war with the owner at the same time. Even then Charlton were unlucky, missing out in the play-offs in season two and in the mix this season.

Attendances and Finances

One of the other things preoccupying Town fans has been the potential for a drop-off in support for the club. We’ve seen predictions that we’ll be closing entire sections of the stadium, that there’ll be a massive crash in season ticket sales and that Portman Road will be two-thirds empty rather than half empty. Is that borne out by the experience of other clubs?

My hunch was that most people who are happy to watch their team lose a lot in the Championship aren’t going to be too dismayed by the prospect of seeing them win a bit more often in League One. Perhaps I underestimated how many people are turned off either by one bad season or by watching worse opposition because attendances for those 18 relegated clubs dipped 14 per cent in total.

There are four exceptions, Sunderland, Blackburn, Bolton and Wolves, with the first two increasing their attendances and latter two’s support holding more or less steady (dropping 0.8 per cent for Bolton and 4 per cent for Wolves). Not coincidentally all four were or are near the top of the league.

Encouragingly for Ipswich, they’re also bigger clubs who haven’t spent a lot of time in League One for whom relegation wasn’t one more yo-yo but an opportunity to rally round a club at a surprisingly low ebb. The most alarming drops tended to happen to the clubs where the crisis went deep and fans were divided – Charlton (down 29 per cent), Blackpool (down 35 per cent).

What happens to your finances? As many have observed Ipswich will instantly lose £7m of their TV deal, about 40 per cent of our total revenue.

That’s a big problem because our last financial report already had our overall wage bill at 103 per cent of present turnover and the Salary Cost Management Protocol (SCMP) caps player salaries at 60 per cent in League One, 75 per cent in a relegated side's first season. Clubs who are on course to overspend incur a transfer embargo. All very alarming, right?

Well, sort of. First off, only contracts signed after September of your relegation year count towards the cap. So that rules out the big contracts signed by Emyr Huws and Bartosz Bialkowski, as well as all the players we signed during the summer.

Of the senior players only Luke Chambers, Teddy Bishop and Freddie Sears have signed new contracts since then and all when relegation looked likely and none had other suitors.

Everyone else on the books is either a kid or awaiting offers. So in terms of restricting the wage bill, it seems we should already be in pretty good shape. The players' contracts also include hefty wage cuts in the event of relegation.

One further positive is that although clubs can’t incur debt to pay wages the owner can chip in with direct donations. That is, if he wants to chuck in £5m to cover the shortfall, he can, just not on the terms that he currently does (via loans).

Finally, even if we were projected to exceed the wage cap (the league examines your proposed accounts at the beginning of the season), the consequences would, at worst, be a transfer embargo not a points deduction.

Both Blackburn Rovers and Wigan Athletic took heavy losses during their League One stint (£16.8m and £7.7m respectively), with the former paying wages equivalent to 187 per cent of their turnover. Neither were punished and the league seems to have accepted that their projected wage bills fell within the rules.

We are, in a way, in a good situation, in that we have a lot of players ready to play who have only just signed their first contract and a few expensive contracts about to expire (Tom Adeyemi, Jonas Knudsen). So, unless the deals doled out this year have been wildly extravagant (unlikely) or Marcus Evans reduces his current level of investment, we shouldn’t be terribly badly off and hopefully won’t be endangering that wage cap.

Where Does That Leave Us?

Relatively speaking, we are in good shape to tackle League One, certainly off the pitch. The young players give us squad depth relatively cheaply and most of the fat contracts are either off the books or won’t count next season anyway.

If Sunderland win promotion to the Championship, we would likely have the highest revenues in the division even without Evans’s regular £5-7m top-up. We would in any case have far more resources even than the majority of teams who have made an instant return and considerably more than the four for whom relegation from the Championship wasn’t their lowest point.

The main danger seems to be the prospect of getting sucked into a Charlton scenario with the club at war with itself. Evans’s management of the club hasn’t endeared him to anyone, either via investment levels, general competence or public relations.

Whilst Paul Lambert has made huge strides on the communications side of things, the quality of football has only improved very gradually.

With no other investor on the horizon if Evans decides he needs to stem losses with a few cheap player sales or things get off to a sticky start on the pitch, an off-field revolt could well turn things ugly.

It’s vital the club and the fans stick together, attendances hold up and that Evans continue to at least plug existing financial gaps. All those being the case we have nothing to fear from League One.

[derick_ipsw]

Well found Tang and very interesting.

[Andym]

An encouraging post based on fact. A good read

[Bluemike]

That last line or Two is spot on and crucial, as I have always said, the fans have far greater influence than they realise, sticking together through thick and thin will get us back, whinging and whining about everything as some do will not help at all, better to stay away.

[Blue Wilf]

Just a reality check - am half watching Man City v Cardiff. Here are City - a team whose fans used to be the epitome of all things good in football. They came from the poor part of Manchester, always had Man Utd pushed at them, supported their team down the divisions in good times and bad - just like the depths we are about to enter. Remember the League 1 play off final when they nearly did not make it? And then they rise, get new ownership where money is no issue, win the PL, start to win in the CL and win cups and have all they ever wanted..... or have they? Playing in front of a lot of empty seats when just 7 games away from the end of a season where they may just do an unprecedented quadruple! What has happened? I think i know - they have lost their connection to their fans and the stadium is full of tourists and prawn sandwich brigade. Having what on paper is everything is simply not everything - following a team that is winning (and sometimes losing/drawing) but at least challenging in their league - whatever their current league - is what is important to fans. It is to me anyway. I would hate to watch City or Utd et al every week cos you lose your sense of perspective. Lets follow the Town - up or down - and enjoy instead of complaining about what might have been. Am looking forward to next season more than the second half of this borefest I am watching on Sky...

[Bluemike]

Love it Wilf, you always speak as I see things, great stuff.

[Blue Wilf]

Well its nice to know I am not the only one who is a football traditionalist and who just wants to enjoy the game i love. Will join you for that pre-match beer at some windswept old League 1 stadium next season

[MasseyFerguson]

Just a reality check - am half watching Man City v Cardiff. Here are City - a team whose fans used to be the epitome of all things good in football. They came from the poor part of Manchester, always had Man Utd pushed at them, supported their team down the divisions in good times and bad - just like the depths we are about to enter. Remember the League 1 play off final when they nearly did not make it? And then they rise, get new ownership where money is no issue, win the PL, start to win in the CL and win cups and have all they ever wanted..... or have they? Playing in front of a lot of empty seats when just 7 games away from the end of a season where they may just do an unprecedented quadruple! What has happened? I think i know - they have lost their connection to their fans and the stadium is full of tourists and prawn sandwich brigade. Having what on paper is everything is simply not everything - following a team that is winning (and sometimes losing/drawing) but at least challenging in their league - whatever their current league - is what is important to fans. It is to me anyway. I would hate to watch City or Utd et al every week cos you lose your sense of perspective. Lets follow the Town - up or down - and enjoy instead of complaining about what might have been. Am looking forward to next season more than the second half of this borefest I am watching on Sky...

I love this post.

[marko69]

Fantastic find, Tangfastic. Love all those stat type posts.

And definitely, Blue Wilf, spot on post. I’m personally very happy that Sir Tom Farmer knows himself that a massive “buy out” of Hibs would NOT be good for the Hibs communiity. We actually celebrate the unexpected success when it comes along...... we don’t go home, watch Midsomer Murders then go to bed after a Trophy win like the fans of a certain Glasgow club.

I have a pal same age as myself who’s been a Man City fan since school......., he’s not keen on things these days and still refers to Home games as Maine Road!

[Bluemike]

Well its nice to know I am not the only one who is a football traditionalist and who just wants to enjoy the game i love. Will join you for that pre-match beer at some windswept old League 1 stadium next season

Yes indeed and I believe we will enjoy next season a lot more, and that does not necessarily mean winning the league either. Yes join me anything for a beer, are you doing Bolton?

[Blue Wilf]

I am going to struggle to get to any more away days this season i am afraid due to travel commitments, but if that changes, will let you know. Enjoy Bolton and safe travels to all Tractor Boys and Girls going up there.

[derick_ipsw]

Ipswich manager Paul Lambert has won three of his last 39 matches as a manager in all competitions (D16 L20). Wow!!

[Shed on tour]

Ipswich manager Paul Lambert has won three of his last 39 matches as a manager in all competitions (D16 L20). Wow!!

Thanks Derick, after a sh*t week that has cheered me up considerably!

[Tangfastic]

Ipswich manager Paul Lambert has won three of his last 39 matches as a manager in all competitions (D16 L20). Wow!!

Yes, it’s a sh*t record, but I’ll judge him next season when he’s not trying to clear up other managers’ messes.

I think he’s aware of that, judging by his response to Brenner Wooley on the weekend. For me, next season is the real test.

[Bluemike]

Exactly how I see it Tang

[derick_ipsw]

18pts to play for and we are 13pts adrift, I predicted Relegation would be confirmed away to Preston and BlueMike said at home to Birmingham. Both of us don't want it at all but we are being realistic. Any other scenarios anybody want to add?

[marko69]

Any other scenarios anybody want to add?

ITFC @ newly promoted Lincoln City first game of next season.

[derick_ipsw]

Players to Leave or sold end of season in RED in my opinion.


IPSWICH TOWN CONTRACT SITUATION

IN LAST YEAR (WITHOUT EXTENSION OPTION)

Knudsen, McKendry, Collins

IN LAST YEAR (WITH EXTENSION OPTION)

Gerken, Ward, Adeyemi, Spence, Emmanuel, C.Smith, Webber, Dawkins

CONTRACTED UNTIL 2020

Skuse, Edwards, Harrison, Roberts, Dozzell, Rowe, Sears, Clements, McGavin, Dobra, Kenlock

CONTRACTED UNTIL 2021

Chambers, Bialkowski, Nsiala, Nolan, Jackson, Huws, Folami, Cotter, Nydam, Drinan, Morris, Wright, Donacien, El Mizouni, Bishop, K Brown, Judge

CONTRACTED UNTIL 2022

Lankester, Woolfenden, Ndaba, Downes

LOANS FOR SEASON

Chalobah, Elder, Keane, Quaner, Bree

[Tangfastic]

Players to Leave end of season in RED in my opinion.


IPSWICH TOWN CONTRACT SITUATION

IN LAST YEAR (WITHOUT EXTENSION OPTION)

Knudsen, McKendry, Collins

IN LAST YEAR (WITH EXTENSION OPTION)

Gerken, Ward, Adeyemi, Spence, Emmanuel, C.Smith, Webber, Dawkins

CONTRACTED UNTIL 2020

Skuse, Edwards, Harrison, Roberts, Dozzell, Rowe, Sears, Clements, McGavin, Dobra, Kenlock

CONTRACTED UNTIL 2021

Chambers, Bialkowski, Nsiala, Nolan, Jackson, Huws, Folami, Cotter, Nydam, Drinan, Morris, Wright, Donacien, El Mizouni, Bishop, K Brown, Judge

CONTRACTED UNTIL 2022

Lankester, Woolfenden, Ndaba, Downes

LOANS FOR SEASON

Chalobah, Elder, Keane, Quaner, Bree

I think we’ll have to cut even further the squad size?

I think we’ll need a couple of strikers ( Keane and another) brought in. Therefore, Jackson or Harrison might need to be offloaded. I can see Harrison leaving as not sure how much Lambert rates him.

In the same way, Lambert doesn’t seem to rate Donacien ... so offload as well.

Get rid of the Irish kids, Cotter and Drinan, too. And Chris Smith, too. Ndaba has overtaken him.

Even though Rowe has done well at Lincoln, I’d be inclined to sell him to Lincoln for a small fee if that’s on the table. Better for everyone.

Big problem is we’ve got a lot of long-term injured .... Huws, Sears, Folami, Morriss .. and Ward.... who aren’t helping the wage bill. Can’t see us extending Ward’s contract and I’d really like to know at the end of the season about Huws ie whether he’ll ever play football again. Does anyone know how insurance works for a player whose career ends prematurely ie does the player and/or club have to prove they’ve tried everything before insurance gets paid out? Don’t want to write a player off, but it’s far too long a time out and wondering if the club knows he’ll never make it, but just seeing out the Duty of Care.

[ashfordblue]

Going by PL comments on Green un he's happy to clear out a load of players very soon, and rely on freebee's ???? lets see who he keeps first, if he stays

[d0ugster]

Players to Leave end of season in RED in my opinion.


IPSWICH TOWN CONTRACT SITUATION

IN LAST YEAR (WITHOUT EXTENSION OPTION)

Knudsen, McKendry, Collins

IN LAST YEAR (WITH EXTENSION OPTION)

Gerken, Ward, Adeyemi, Spence, Emmanuel, C.Smith, Webber, Dawkins

CONTRACTED UNTIL 2020

Skuse, Edwards, Harrison, Roberts, Dozzell, Rowe, Sears, Clements, McGavin, Dobra, Kenlock

CONTRACTED UNTIL 2021

Chambers, Bialkowski, Nsiala, Nolan, Jackson, Huws, Folami, Cotter, Nydam, Drinan, Morris, Wright, Donacien, El Mizouni, Bishop, K Brown, Judge

CONTRACTED UNTIL 2022

Lankester, Woolfenden, Ndaba, Downes

LOANS FOR SEASON

Chalobah, Elder, Keane, Quaner, Bree

I think we’ll have to cut even further the squad size?

I think we’ll need a couple of strikers ( Keane and another) brought in. Therefore, Jackson or Harrison might need to be offloaded. I can see Harrison leaving as not sure how much Lambert rates him.

In the same way, Lambert doesn’t seem to rate Donacien ... so offload as well.

Get rid of the Irish kids, Cotter and Drinan, too. And Chris Smith, too. Ndaba has overtaken him.

Even though Rowe has done well at Lincoln, I’d be inclined to sell him to Lincoln for a small fee if that’s on the table. Better for everyone.

Big problem is we’ve got a lot of long-term injured .... Huws, Sears, Folami, Morriss .. and Ward.... who aren’t helping the wage bill. Can’t see us extending Ward’s contract and I’d really like to know at the end of the season about Huws ie whether he’ll ever play football again. Does anyone know how insurance works for a player whose career ends prematurely ie does the player and/or club have to prove they’ve tried everything before insurance gets paid out? Don’t want to write a player off, but it’s far too long a time out and wondering if the club knows he’ll never make it, but just seeing out the Duty of Care.

f**king hell

[Tangfastic]

Players to Leave end of season in RED in my opinion.


IPSWICH TOWN CONTRACT SITUATION

IN LAST YEAR (WITHOUT EXTENSION OPTION)

Knudsen, McKendry, Collins

IN LAST YEAR (WITH EXTENSION OPTION)

Gerken, Ward, Adeyemi, Spence, Emmanuel, C.Smith, Webber, Dawkins

CONTRACTED UNTIL 2020

Skuse, Edwards, Harrison, Roberts, Dozzell, Rowe, Sears, Clements, McGavin, Dobra, Kenlock

CONTRACTED UNTIL 2021

Chambers, Bialkowski, Nsiala, Nolan, Jackson, Huws, Folami, Cotter, Nydam, Drinan, Morris, Wright, Donacien, El Mizouni, Bishop, K Brown, Judge

CONTRACTED UNTIL 2022

Lankester, Woolfenden, Ndaba, Downes

LOANS FOR SEASON

Chalobah, Elder, Keane, Quaner, Bree

I think we’ll have to cut even further the squad size?

I think we’ll need a couple of strikers ( Keane and another) brought in. Therefore, Jackson or Harrison might need to be offloaded. I can see Harrison leaving as not sure how much Lambert rates him.

In the same way, Lambert doesn’t seem to rate Donacien ... so offload as well.

Get rid of the Irish kids, Cotter and Drinan, too. And Chris Smith, too. Ndaba has overtaken him.

Even though Rowe has done well at Lincoln, I’d be inclined to sell him to Lincoln for a small fee if that’s on the table. Better for everyone.

Big problem is we’ve got a lot of long-term injured .... Huws, Sears, Folami, Morriss .. and Ward.... who aren’t helping the wage bill. Can’t see us extending Ward’s contract and I’d really like to know at the end of the season about Huws ie whether he’ll ever play football again. Does anyone know how insurance works for a player whose career ends prematurely ie does the player and/or club have to prove they’ve tried everything before insurance gets paid out? Don’t want to write a player off, but it’s far too long a time out and wondering if the club knows he’ll never make it, but just seeing out the Duty of Care.

f**king hell

Well... expand a bit more.

Is it because it’s deemed a bit racist to called them Irish kids. I just lumped them together because they’re both Irish and they came here around the same time under Mick. And they don’t look like they have a future here when we’re trying to trim the squad.

Or is because you really rate them?

[marko69]

I'd be shocked if it was anything at all to do with racism. After all, they're Irish. Probably means that by using "get rid", it could mean "chuck on the scrap heap". This Scottish PR!ck certainly hopes that's why the "f**king hell" was born.

[derick_ipsw]

I think we’ll have to cut even further the squad size?

I think we’ll need a couple of strikers ( Keane and another) brought in. Therefore, Jackson or Harrison might need to be offloaded. I can see Harrison leaving as not sure how much Lambert rates him.

In the same way, Lambert doesn’t seem to rate Donacien ... so offload as well.

Get rid of the Irish kids, Cotter and Drinan, too. And Chris Smith, too. Ndaba has overtaken him.

Even though Rowe has done well at Lincoln, I’d be inclined to sell him to Lincoln for a small fee if that’s on the table. Better for everyone.

Big problem is we’ve got a lot of long-term injured .... Huws, Sears, Folami, Morriss .. and Ward.... who aren’t helping the wage bill. Can’t see us extending Ward’s contract and I’d really like to know at the end of the season about Huws ie whether he’ll ever play football again. Does anyone know how insurance works for a player whose career ends prematurely ie does the player and/or club have to prove they’ve tried everything before insurance gets paid out? Don’t want to write a player off, but it’s far too long a time out and wondering if the club knows he’ll never make it, but just seeing out the Duty of Care.

f**king hell

Well... expand a bit more.

Is it because it’s deemed a bit racist to called them Irish kids. I just lumped them together because they’re both Irish and they came here around the same time under Mick. And they don’t look like they have a future here when we’re trying to trim the squad.

Or is because you really rate them?

How else are you suppose to describe kids from Ireland? Don't worry about it Tang you have done nothing wrong. Also the "f**king hell" comment comes from someone who only posts every 2 years, so you might get a response in 2021.

[hallamblue]

Ha ha ha !! Nice one Derek

[derick_ipsw]

April 13th 2019 Ipswich Town fc have been relegated to the 3rd tier of English football.

[marko69]

Regardless of being well prepped for weeks, it’s still a sad day. Forget that League One Shyte, ——-> it’s Division 3.