Realistic expectations for rest of season.

[Mork]

Ok,

So I just went through the BBC's predictor for the remainder of the Championship season, tried to be as honest and realistic as I could be, whilst reflecting the fact that I believe we're finally showing some form and have identified what is clearly our "best team".

Easier to list the games I saw us as potentially dropping points, which were as follows:

Wolves away - a draw here would be a good result - gone for that draw.
Preston away - can see us losing this.
Crystal Palace away - gone for a draw here.
Luton away - gone for a draw again here.
Watford away - gone for a loss here, Watford look strong.
Plymouth away - again, I think a draw, but this is the most likely away-win that I havn't gone for.

I think that's reasonably fair and balanced, going on form, other teams positions and form and what we need to be doing to be serious contending. You'll note I'm assuming we win all our home games from this point on, and that's going to be hard - but necessary if we want any chance of getting into that playoff position.

My optimistic assessment, sees us finishing on 69 points. Unfortunately, going on the last 3 years tables, that sees us in either 7th or 8th position - which I think, is probably the most honest assessment of where this season is heading, and given how things went before Christmas, would probably be some kind of achievement. It ain't the play-offs though.

Thoughts?

[Riviera]

our goals against column could well be our downfall this season, would be heart breaking to go an a great run and miss the playoffs on goal difference

[Mork]

BTW, if anybody else wants to run the predictor, it's here.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/footbal ... efault.stm

You can just enter the scores your interested in (ie Ipswich matches) and select the final "update table" when complete. Be interested to hear other peoples final "points" tally.

69 isn't going to get it done, goal difference or otherwise, so I really don't see that being a factor Riv.

[phily bon bon]

our goals against column could well be our downfall this season, would be heart breaking to go an a great run and miss the playoffs on goal difference

True Riv (dont get me started on the defence ) I cant for the life of me see us finishing higher than 8th or 9th like mork wrote.Great as yesterday was lets see what happens over the next couple of games.

[uefacup81]

Reading 116
Sheffield Utd 100
Leeds 88
Palace 80
Watford 75 (+14)
Ipswich 75 (+7)
Preston 74

[Adi]

10 points behind the play off spot..its going to be a hard run in

[Dubai Blue]

Its about time we snuck into the play offs in 6th spot and won the play-offs isn't it ?

You know it may sound silly but I am starting to think that we are building a team to last here and that JR is looking more like George Burley than we give him credit for.

If that is true then maybe the worst thing that can happen is for us to get up this year and get shot down the next. Better to finish the rebuild (its not done yet) and go up next year and stay up.

[Mork]

Its about time we snuck into the play offs in 6th spot and won the play-offs isn't it ?

You know it may sound silly but I am starting to think that we are building a team to last here and that JR is looking more like George Burley than we give him credit for.

If that is true then maybe the worst thing that can happen is for us to get up this year and get shot down the next. Better to finish the rebuild (its not done yet) and go up next year and stay up.

Watch out, thats sanity talking.

[Riviera]

Its about time we snuck into the play offs in 6th spot and won the play-offs isn't it ?

You know it may sound silly but I am starting to think that we are building a team to last here and that JR is looking more like George Burley than we give him credit for.

If that is true then maybe the worst thing that can happen is for us to get up this year and get shot down the next. Better to finish the rebuild (its not done yet) and go up next year and stay up.

DB, i cant help feeling that BFJ has stumbled across this winning team by accident, theres no way he'd of played the kids unless he was forced to because of injuries and suspensions

GB made a team by using kids, he actually believed they could do the job for us, BFJ doesnt think like that

im betting that most of the kids will be dropped if and when more experienced players come back

[Dazza]

DB, i cant help feeling that BFJ has stumbled across this winning team by accident, theres no way he'd of played the kids unless he was forced to because of injuries and suspensions

GB made a team by using kids, he actually believed they could do the job for us, BFJ doesnt think like that

im betting that most of the kids will be dropped if and when more experienced players come back

I dunno about that. With Haynes you're probably right and Barron (and Richards promotion to midfield). But thats not down to Royle not giving them a chance, thats just due to these kids getting their chance and grabbing it with both hands. Thats how it works sometimes.

Royle has brought in Williams and Sito who are around 25, so they're not his normal 30+ product and still have a good 5 to 6 years left in them. Also he has put faith in Westlake in the previous seasons and has put alot of faith in Garvan.

[Bluebird]

Its about time we snuck into the play offs in 6th spot and won the play-offs isn't it ?

You know it may sound silly but I am starting to think that we are building a team to last here and that JR is looking more like George Burley than we give him credit for.

If that is true then maybe the worst thing that can happen is for us to get up this year and get shot down the next. Better to finish the rebuild (its not done yet) and go up next year and stay up.

DB, i cant help feeling that BFJ has stumbled across this winning team by accident, theres no way he'd of played the kids unless he was forced to because of injuries and suspensions

GB made a team by using kids, he actually believed they could do the job for us, BFJ doesnt think like that

im betting that most of the kids will be dropped if and when more experienced players come back

I agree Riv, and would point to Joe's use of Haynes in the last two matches, which was forced upon him by injury and Currie's slow driving

[Dubai Blue]

Sorry BB I don't believe he was forced to use Haynes in either game. Earlier in the season he has played with 1 up front and a packed midfield. I know the teamsheets have been showing 4411 & 451 recently but we all know that Haynes & Lee have been together upfront. I think if he didn't rate Haynes he would have played Westlake and left Lee on his own.

Its too easy to say that managers 'stumble across' successes but in fact they bring through the youngsters, pick the squad and make the substitution decisions and plenty more besides. In addition I believe that a large part of our recent success is down to the fact that it is not always easy to see our formation and that the players have clearly been working on varying it to give Currie (in particular) some freedom. Who should get the credit for that ?

Of course some formations work and some don't, which is mostly down to how the players perform. But the boss has to put the ingredients in place for things to gel.

I prefer to think that JR has a more realistic idea of how long it takes for the youngsters to come through. After all we love Haynes but even now he can't actually last a whole 90 minutes - but eventually he will develop the strength and perhaps experience to do so.

If you're going to criticise JR for his errors you must also praise him when he gets it right, however lucky you may believe him to have been.

[Bluebird]

Sorry BB I don't believe he was forced to use Haynes in either game. Earlier in the season he has played with 1 up front and a packed midfield. I know the teamsheets have been showing 4411 & 451 recently but we all know that Haynes & Lee have been together upfront. I think if he didn't rate Haynes he would have played Westlake and left Lee on his own.

Evening DB, I'd like to debate this point further with you

First Leeds, Joe was going to play 4-5-1, but Currie got stuck on the A12 and Joe was "forced" to pick Haynes in his place, Haynes put in a near match winning perormance up front with Lee. Secondly Norwich, Haynes was only introduced because of the injury to Williams. Not only did Haynes improve us going forward, but Currie's game improved in a conventional midfield role.

So, please tell me, was this inspired management, or lucky management as a result of circumstances? I await your reply

[ITFC10]

Its gonna be a hard run in, but all we need is a excellent final run in, and we could just sneak in, but then again im not getting my hopes up, anything can happen over the last hurdle.

[Dubai Blue]

Well I accept that Haynes was not in the expected starting line up for either game BB but he was on the bench and I'll wager pencilled in to come on at some point and continue his development.

Against Leeds JR could have gone with the solid 5 man midfield and left Lee on his own couldn't he ? We saw this with Forster last year after all on more occasions that we would probably have liked

On Sunday, sure Williams got injured which gave Haynes the chance to shine again. But JR could have left Currie playing behind Lee and brought on Westlake.

I think that if JR is so anti-youth he would have overlooked Haynes on both these occasions and in fact he has made those 'safe' decisions many times this season.

Clearly JR believes that the time is right for some of the younger players and I think he has made these decisions deliberately, not by accident, because he had options that earlier in the season he was using.

Scott Barron is another case in point. You might say JR was lucky because he threw into the full team a kid that many of those on here saw in the reserves and rated as only average. But again he had a choice. He was given authorisation to buy at LB and has Wilnis & Richards available to play there too. But Barron is having a a great run. Is that luck ? Or good judgement ?

Now look at our 'best' starting 11;

Supple
Sito
DeVos
Naylor
Barron
Currie / Williams
Garvan
Juan
Richards
Haynes
Lee

and compare with last season. Only our solid and (of late in DeVos's case) dependable centre backs and Currie are left. And apart from these 3 all are youthful. they might not have all come from our wonderful youth team of last year but some of them weren't up to it and others may yet get their chance. Is this new line-up accidental ?

Sure, they won't yet play every game because they are not yet strong and fit enough. In 4 or 5 more games I would be concerned about Barron tiring too and wouldn't be surprised to see him rested for a couple. Haynes will get an enforced rest now for a game or two as will Garvan (suspended).

JR's job isn't done yet, but its on the way. I think that perhaps some of us expect things to happen too quickly. Just like George Bush thinks he's going to democratise the Middle East in his lifetime - some things take time and the greatest gift of a leader in my view is to recognise the importance of time in any project.

Well BB you asked for a response

[Riviera]

christ DB, its hard to argue any points with u when u get ur BFJ hat on

but i stand by what i said earlier, BFJ would never of been playing these kids now if it wasnt for injuries earlier in the season, maybe he had them in mind for the future, but for me his hand was forced and hes now reaping the benifits, since the youngsters have been regularly in the team the whole feeling around portman road has changed, better the results means confidence, more confidence leaves players to express themselves, with the team as a whole playing well the flack has been well and truely taken away from sheepy and BFJ who only a month or so ago were being asked to "feck off" lol

[Dubai Blue]

Sorry Riv. Its cold again here today (-15) and you just gotta wear a hat

I guess what I could have said much more concisely is that there are always two ways of looking at things.

I remember (vaguely) a world cup when my lifetime hero Bobby Robson was the manager and in the group games things were not going so well and then someone got injured, (I can't remember who) and BR was forced to change formation and play someone we all thought he didn't want to. And like magic it started to come good. Good luck some might say, but he was in the squad and got the nod.

I reckon success in football management is a combination of good planning and good luck. You can't plan everything but you can put yourself in good shape to recover from your knocks and that is what has happenned hasn't it ?

[Riviera]

Sorry Riv. Its cold again here today (-15) and you just gotta wear a hat

I guess what I could have said much more concisely is that there are always two ways of looking at things.

I remember (vaguely) a world cup when my lifetime hero Bobby Robson was the manager and in the group games things were not going so well and then someone got injured, (I can't remember who) and BR was forced to change formation and play someone we all thought he didn't want to. And like magic it started to come good. Good luck some might say, but he was in the squad and got the nod.

I reckon success in football management is a combination of good planning and good luck. You can't plan everything but you can put yourself in good shape to recover from your knocks and that is what has happenned hasn't it ?

yeah fair play, cant argue with that, although i have a feeling BB will try

for what its worth, i think currie has saved BFJ's job on a few occasions, so maybe the manager is just paying him back by continuing to play him despite the fact hes a tart

[samdaman]

With regard to our realistic short / long term prospects.
I am reliably informed that having re-negociated our loan, we are financially pretty stable and therefore not obliged to sell players to the lowest bidder !!
Sheepy and the board are looking at a 3 year plan that will see us promoted with the current squad plus whoever Joe can bring in.
Makes sense to me and although Joe is talking about a late run for the playoffs, it will probably be better to consolidate for another couple of years and then go up with a realistic chance of survival.

[crazee]

Reading 116
Sheffield Utd 100
Leeds 88
Palace 80
Watford 75 (+14)
Ipswich 75 (+7)
Preston 74

not certain about point totals but id probaly go for something like UEFAcup81, we do need to beat PReston, Watford, palace and well pretty much avoid defeat from now until the end of the year but its possible.

[Mork]

Well I accept that Haynes was not in the expected starting line up for either game BB but he was on the bench and I'll wager pencilled in to come on at some point and continue his development.

Against Leeds JR could have gone with the solid 5 man midfield and left Lee on his own couldn't he ? We saw this with Forster last year after all on more occasions that we would probably have liked

On Sunday, sure Williams got injured which gave Haynes the chance to shine again. But JR could have left Currie playing behind Lee and brought on Westlake.

I think that if JR is so anti-youth he would have overlooked Haynes on both these occasions and in fact he has made those 'safe' decisions many times this season.

Clearly JR believes that the time is right for some of the younger players and I think he has made these decisions deliberately, not by accident, because he had options that earlier in the season he was using.

Scott Barron is another case in point. You might say JR was lucky because he threw into the full team a kid that many of those on here saw in the reserves and rated as only average. But again he had a choice. He was given authorisation to buy at LB and has Wilnis & Richards available to play there too. But Barron is having a a great run. Is that luck ? Or good judgement ?

Now look at our 'best' starting 11;

Supple
Sito
DeVos
Naylor
Barron
Currie / Williams
Garvan
Juan
Richards
Haynes
Lee

and compare with last season. Only our solid and (of late in DeVos's case) dependable centre backs and Currie are left. And apart from these 3 all are youthful. they might not have all come from our wonderful youth team of last year but some of them weren't up to it and others may yet get their chance. Is this new line-up accidental ?

Sure, they won't yet play every game because they are not yet strong and fit enough. In 4 or 5 more games I would be concerned about Barron tiring too and wouldn't be surprised to see him rested for a couple. Haynes will get an enforced rest now for a game or two as will Garvan (suspended).

JR's job isn't done yet, but its on the way. I think that perhaps some of us expect things to happen too quickly. Just like George Bush thinks he's going to democratise the Middle East in his lifetime - some things take time and the greatest gift of a leader in my view is to recognise the importance of time in any project.

Well BB you asked for a response

I was with you until you compared BFJ to George Bush, at which point I instantly labelled you buffoon and disregarded all previous comments. George Bush will be blowing a big stinking hole where the middle east is or thereabouts, and that's it for Mr Numpties lifetime achievement list.

[Mork]

With regard to our realistic short / long term prospects.
I am reliably informed that having re-negociated our loan, we are financially pretty stable and therefore not obliged to sell players to the lowest bidder !!
Sheepy and the board are looking at a 3 year plan that will see us promoted with the current squad plus whoever Joe can bring in.
Makes sense to me and although Joe is talking about a late run for the playoffs, it will probably be better to consolidate for another couple of years and then go up with a realistic chance of survival.

Ok, but with my cynics hat on, let's remember we've already past our 1 year immediate promotion plan, our 2 year (consolidate and push onward for automatic promotion) plan, and this will be the end of our 3 year, final push plan.

And sheepy has said we don't have to sell players, from 2 months before he sold Holland and that mob, to 2-3 months before we sold Bent, Davies, and let Kuqi and Miller go.

So I appreciate your point, but essentially, Sheepy promises he'll talk water into wine, and we've "had a plan" ever since relegation, that we've spectacuarly failed to live up to.

[Mork]

With regard to our realistic short / long term prospects.
I am reliably informed that having re-negociated our loan, we are financially pretty stable and therefore not obliged to sell players to the lowest bidder !!
Sheepy and the board are looking at a 3 year plan that will see us promoted with the current squad plus whoever Joe can bring in.
Makes sense to me and although Joe is talking about a late run for the playoffs, it will probably be better to consolidate for another couple of years and then go up with a realistic chance of survival.

Ok, but with my cynics hat on, let's remember we've already past our 1 year immediate promotion plan, our 2 year (consolidate and push onward for automatic promotion) plan, and this will be the end of our 3 year, final push plan.

And sheepy has said we don't have to sell players, from 2 months before he sold Holland and that mob, to 2-3 months before we sold Bent, Davies, and let Kuqi and Miller go.

So I appreciate your point, but essentially, Sheepy promises he'll talk water into wine, and we've "had a plan" ever since relegation, that we've spectacuarly failed to live up to.

Oh - and we've been "financially stable" at intermittent points, including the run up to administration, and at subsequent points following, usually immediately prior to us selling the family jewels for lowest dollar.

[Dubai Blue]

Mork mate. I'm with you on George Bush and I wasn't comparing him with BFJ.

The point I was making is that Goerge Bush's big problem (in my view) is that he's one of these people who thinks that nothing important happened before he was born and than anything important left to do should be done before he dies. In essence everything can be fixed right away.

Some of us fans take the same approach to our team, they imply that just chucking in a couple of kids and chucking out some of the older legs is an immediate quick fix route to glory and they haven't got the patience for a longer strategy that involves a slow development that may even take longer than BFJ is at PR.

BTW I promise I wasn't actually comparing BB to George Bush either in case someone thinks that

[Mork]

Mork mate. I'm with you on George Bush and I wasn't comparing him with BFJ.

The point I was making is that Goerge Bush's big problem (in my view) is that he's one of these people who thinks that nothing important happened before he was born and than anything important left to do should be done before he dies. In essence everything can be fixed right away.

Some of us fans take the same approach to our team, they imply that just chucking in a couple of kids and chucking out some of the older legs is an immediate quick fix route to glory and they haven't got the patience for a longer strategy that involves a slow development that may even take longer than BFJ is at PR.

BTW I promise I wasn't actually comparing BB to George Bush either in case someone thinks that

Lol Ok, lets also be careful about comparing middle east peace and promotion from the Championship I'm not sure we're in the same reallity zone here

[samdaman]

OK - perhaps i'm wearing my non-cynics hat, but there does seem to be a renewed air of relief and optimism around the ground at the moment.
It's no secret that up until recent financial events, we would have been obliged to sell any player to appease our paymasters.
This is now not the case and with our current crop of teenagers, plus a bit of experience, 2 to 3 years seems quite feasible.
I may be wrong - I hope i'm not !!

[Dubai Blue]

Yeah you may have a point there Mork. Probably stretching the similarities a bit. Just as well I didn't start to refer to George Bush as GB then we could really have had some fun

[Bluebird]

Mork mate. I'm with you on George Bush and I wasn't comparing him with BFJ.

The point I was making is that Goerge Bush's big problem (in my view) is that he's one of these people who thinks that nothing important happened before he was born and than anything important left to do should be done before he dies. In essence everything can be fixed right away.

Some of us fans take the same approach to our team, they imply that just chucking in a couple of kids and chucking out some of the older legs is an immediate quick fix route to glory and they haven't got the patience for a longer strategy that involves a slow development that may even take longer than BFJ is at PR.

BTW I promise I wasn't actually comparing BB to George Bush either in case someone thinks that

Thanks for that and also your lengthy replies

I agree with Riv, it is difficult to argue with some of the points you've made. However, I was facinated by your reference to Robson in the world cup, and I do feel that you are a tad generous with your praise of Royle.

I cannot forget games like away to Burnley, when Joe chose to play Horlock, Magilton, & Currie with poor Garvan as their runner, possibly one of the worst Town performances ever! Home to a then struggling Preston, one up front FFS, other games where he has baffled us all with his selections, tactics and substitutions.

I'm not convinced that we have seen the last of his 4-5-1 system, and to be frank it does not work for us. I will also admit to being a little confused by what I'm seeing now, for IMHO Royle's Ipswich sides have lacked fight and team spirit, and we are at last seeing signs of that. Is that down to him or the players?

You mention a long term plan, well we all knew this season was going to be a hard one, but we hoped that by blooding youngsters there would be a purpose to it, and therefore form part of a longer term rebuilding exercise. You may argue thats happening now, but I consider we wasted half a season on players and tactics that will not form part of our future.

I'm so glad we are playing well, i'm so glad the youngsters are playing well, but as for Mr Royle, the jury should remain out a while yet before they decide whether he is a good, or a lucky manager.

[Drunken Munky]

Im gonna go for a 6th place and win the play-offs

[hallamblue]

our goals against column could well be our downfall this season, would be heart breaking to go an a great run and miss the playoffs on goal difference

"this season" ???...it is every bloody season LOL !!